After a Monday Night Football game, the New York Giants are turning around to catch a plane to Miami to take on the Dolphins in Week 5. Read on and get the Giants vs. Dolphins preview featuring predictions, odds, depth charts, injuries, and best bets.
New York Giants vs. Miami Dolphins Best Bet
A week after dropping 70 points on the Broncos, the Dolphins were humbled in a 48-20 loss to the Bills in Week 4. This offense was not operating with the same efficiency we saw through the first three games as the game included an interception, 11 quarterback hits, four sacks, and four fumbles. To make matters worse, they will likely be down their star left tackle Terron Armstead moving forward as he exited the game with a knee injury and did not return.
Defensively, the Dolphins have talent, but you wouldn’t know it by the numbers: 29.8 points per game (28th), 374.5 yards per game (T-25th), 5.7 yards per play (27th), 23.3 first downs per game (28th), and .06 EPA per play (26th). Daniel Jones isn’t playing at his best, but this defense isn’t super threatening to opposing quarterbacks. From a fantasy football perspective, it’s worth noting that this Miami defense has given up the third-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks behind just Chicago and Denver.
Luckily, Tua Tagovailoa and the Miami offense is playing at such a high level that they have been able to balance a lot of the defensive struggles. How sustainable that game plan is, is another question. But right now, they are averaging a league-high 511 yards and 37.5 points per game. They should have no issue beating up on a Giants defense which has conceded the third-most points to opponents, second fewest sacks (4), and are currently the only team in the NFL that has yet to record an interception. Their pass defense EPA and DVOA rank 29th and 30th and their rush defense EPA and DVOA rank 24th and 23rd, respectively.
The Giants’ offensive problems were on full display in their Monday Night Football game against Seattle. The Seattle defense sacked Daniel Jones 10 times and picked him off twice, once for pick-six. They failed to score a touchdown, or really come close, which has now placed them in last place in the league in points per game (11.5) and second to last in total yards (252).
Saquon Barkley and Andrew Thomas have been bigger losses to this offense than anyone could’ve imagined but Daniel Jones is also just not playing good football. Barkley and Thomas are both still questionable but in a good position to return this week per reports. This would give the offense a big lift, and possibly allow them to capitalize on a Miami defense ranked 30th in rush defense EPA and success rate.
The Giants are ranked 31st in overall DVOA and net EPA and will be facing the top-ranked team in offensive EPA and offensive DVOA. It doesn’t get more lopsided than that. Expect Miami to put points on the board. If Barkley is back, he could get the offense going versus a struggling Dolphins defense. Take the over on points here if Barkley is healthy. Back the Dolphins to cover the spread if he’s out.
New York Giants vs. Miami Dolphins Best Bet: Over 49.5 points
New York Giants vs. Miami Dolphins Best Odds
This line has seen significant movement since Week 1. The opening line on this game had the Dolphins at -4.5 and by Week 4 that had moved to -9.5. Following Monday night’s game, the Giants are now 10-11 point underdogs.
Oct. 08, 12:00 PM Spread Moneyline Odds updated October 8th, 2023, at 2:52 pm
NYG @ MIA
Oct. 08, 12:00 PM
Odds updated October 8th, 2023, at 2:52 pm
On the Giants, Saquon Barkley and Andrew Thomas are the big statuses to monitor. The Dolphins have stayed relatively healthy but are now down Terron Armstead who landed on the IR in Week 3. Jeff Wilson Jr. is slated to make a return after being on the IR since early September, adding to an already dynamic running back room.
New York Giants vs. Miami Dolphins Key Matchups & Mismatches
Check out the key matchups and mismatches for the Giants vs. Dolphins game below.
Miami running backs vs. Giants run defense
Devon A’Chane proved that his Week 3 performance was not a one-off, racking up 101 rushing yards and two touchdowns in the Week 4 loss. Raheem Mostert balances A’Chane’s running game with backfield pass-catching that has him fifth in receiving yards of all running backs. These two are leading a dynamic and versatile offense to the top spot in rush offense EPA and DVOA.
They’ll be facing a Giants run defense ranked 24th in EPA, 23rd in DVOA, and 19th in success rate. They’ve given up seven rushing touchdowns in four games, which is tied for the most in the league.
Giants offensive line vs. Miami pass rush
Little needs to be said about the Giants offensive line struggles right now. They gave up 10 sacks on Daniel Jones last week alone, which is twice as much as Miami has given up all season long. Andrew Thomas may be coming back this week which would be a big boost.
Miami’s front seven isn’t anything to write home about which could take some of the pressure off Daniel Jones pending Andrew Thomas and other injuries. They are ranked 22nd in quarterback pressures per dropback (21.2%) and are tied for the seventh-fewest sacks (7) on the year, but have the 11th highest defensive blitz rate (29.1%).
It’s worth noting that Seattle ranked 30th and 28th respectively in defensive blitz and pressure rate heading into their game on Monday and were still able to do considerable damage to this New York offensive line. Could Miami do the same?