One of the more pleasant surprise stories of the season have been the revitalization of the New York Giants, a team that went well over their win total as well as the most profitable ATS team in the league. On the flip side, they get a Vikings team who is behind one of the most head scratching seasons in recent history with a losing score differential. Will the Vikings’ lucky streak prevail with yet another one possession win?
New York Giants vs Minnesota Vikings Betting Odds
Oddsmakers certainly think so as they opened the Vikings as a -3 favorite. Bettors have been unable to budge on either side of the key number, keeping the spread firm at three. This comes as no surprise as this is one of the more intriguing games of the slate. The Vikings finished the season with an impressive record, but also finished with a negative score differential and lackluster DVOA ranks on both sides of the ball.
As for the total, points are expected to be scored in bunches as oddsmakers opened the total at 47.5. Bettors are in agreement, backing the over up to as high as 48.5. Both units possess a very weak defense, especially for playoff standards, as both units rank well below average in Overall Def DVOA. Even so, this is still a pass for me as the game script may dictate otherwise with the Giants looking to establish the run and control the clock.
New York Giants vs Minnesota Vikings Prediction
The Pick: Tease Giants to +9
With that said, I will back the Giants at the number. But not just on the number, as I will instead put them in a Wong teaser and get them at over two scores for some added security. This secures what I believe will be a narrow, run heavy, controlled clock type of game. One that may very well see the Vikings get another one possession win, an unreal feat as all their wins this season have come by one possession.
The Vikings have been labeled as frauds all season long and their metrics back it up. Especially on the defensive end, an area that is one of the worst units in football. They will be hard pressed to limit the pass attack as their secondary ranks 26th in Def Pass DVOA. If Saquon Barkley can generate production early, then this opens up the passing lanes even more for Jones to pick apart.
The Vikings offensive production has also fallen off a cliff as the season progressed. This will be the key metric to watch as it will be up to the Giants defense to keep this within the number. Especially through the air, containing Justin Jefferson and bringing pressure to the backfield to fold Kirk Cousins. That has been the key to slowing down their offense, a feat that is easier said than done with an underwhelming Giants defense.
- Giants are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games coming off of a SU loss
- Vikings are 1-4 ATS in their last five games coming off of a win
- Road team is 9-4 ATS in their last 13 meetings
New York Giants Injuries: Jason Pinnock (Q), Azeez Ojulari (Q), Leonard Williams (Q)
Minnesota Vikings Injuries: Harrison Smith (Q), Cameron Dantzler Sr (Q), Za’Darius Smith (Q)
Can the Giants ground game find success against the Vikings rush defense?
Saquon Barkley vs Vikings rush defense
While the Vikings defense has been one of the worst units overall, their rush defense has been somewhat average with a 16th ranked Def Rush DVOA. With the Giants looking to lean heavily towards their rush success, this will be another key metric to watch for our Giants tickets.
A majority of their ground game comes off the back of Saquon Barkley, one of the best running backs in the league who has thrived in his return. His size allows him to bypass the defensive line with ease, giving issues to defending secondaries.
This is vital as the Vikings second level have been brutally bad all year and will be poised to have trouble bringing down Barkley once again. He had a respectable game in their last outing this season, running for 84 yards and one touchdown in a three-point loss.
Put the Giants in a Wong teaser in what will be a run heavy game script that may lead to another one possession victory on either end.