Get Giants vs. Cowboys player prop picks & odds for the (11/12/23) matchup.
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With so much ambiguity around the quarterback position for the Giants, there aren’t too many player props available, and even if there were, we wouldn’t really want to invest in an offense we can’t fully understand in its current state. Let’s focus on Dallas for this one and see where their side of things presents us with some value.
Jake Ferguson Over 3.5 Receptions (-135)
If you watch any of the Lineups.com YouTube content, you know that several of us on the Lineups football staff are big fans of Ferguson, the Cowboys’ tight end. A product of the University of Wisconsin, he is yet another solid player at the position out of the Big Ten conference, which also produced the likes of George Kittle, T.J. Hockenson, and Pat Freiermuth.
As it turns out, the Dallas Cowboys are also beginning to fully appreciate Ferguson, who in his second season, has already far surpassed many of the cumulative statistics from his rookie campaign a year ago. Most relevantly for this prop, he’s been over the number of 3.5 receptions in four of his past six games, and in one of the other two, he came very close with exactly three grabs.
This could be a particularly good situation for Ferguson to be targeted successfully, as the Giants rank 20th in pass defense DVOA and 19th in the same category for EPA. by contrast, the Cowboys rank sixth in passing offense EPA, and while that number has been propped up a bit by playing some terrible teams, to put it bluntly, the Giants are another one; Dallas’s great success in this area should continue this Sunday.
As I’ll discuss in a moment, the Cowboys should win this one in a blowout, so I don’t expect them to be particularly aggressive pushing the ball downfield, which is why we’re targeting catches rather than yardage for Ferguson; we want to cash our bet even if he’s just catching outlets and dump offs, instead of relying on big downfield gainers.
For teams that build a big early lead and want to be conservative without fully committing to being a one-dimensional run team for a quarter or more, short passes to a reliable tight end are a great way to keep the chains moving without too much exposure to risk. Ferguson would be the beneficiary of this strategy, and with his line set so low, there’s some great value to be had.
Dak Prescott 247.5 Passing Yards (-115)
This might be a bit contrary to the above pick for Ferguson, but as I mentioned, I don’t expect the Cowboys to push the ball downfield all game; just throwing enough to keep the chains moving and the ball out of the Giants’ hands, after their lead is built. This game should be a veritable blowout, and if it’s not, the reason likely isn’t that the Giants turned into a scoring juggernaut against the stout Dallas defense, it’s probably because New York’s own defense had a big day on a big stage and slowed down Prescott and the rest of the offense.
Neither one of these likeliest scenarios implies particularly high volume for Prescott, who is probably going to have a pretty limited role for the later stages of the game if Dallas pulls away. We’re getting a really nice sell-high spot on his yardage prop, as he’s been over 300 yards in each of his past two contests, and tossed for 272 in the previous one.
Overall, he’s cleared this number in six of the past seven contests, with the lone outlier being the game where the Cowboys were completely stifled by the outstanding 49ers defense. The only other time he’s been below 247.5 this season was opening day, when the Cowboys faced none other than the New York Giants, at MetLife Stadium. Prescott threw for just 143 yards in a 40-0 blowout win, as his services were simply not needed for much of the evening.
Of course, it’s borderline impossible and definitely irresponsible to predict another domination of that magnitude, but the point stands that these teams are completely mismatched, and this game should be another serious outlier in Prescott’s passing yardage dataset. He’ll throw the ball early, and likely very well, but not often, en route to an under for this prop.
Stephon Gilmore Under 3.5 Tackles+Assists (-115)
This is not a “fade” of Gilmore, but rather a vote of confidence in his ability as a defensive back. Inexperienced rookie quarterback Tommy Devito is expected to start for New York, and he is not likely to put up a big day against a Dallas defense that ranks sixth in passing defense DVOA, compared to a Giants offense that ranks dead last in passing DVOA.
Devito completed just two passes in an outing off the bench against the New York Jets, and then 15 in 20 attempts in a more lengthy appearance against the Raiders. He’s not going to complete, or realistically, even attempt enough throws to force Gilmore into making four or more hits. The veteran defensive back is likely to be on an island where he is rarely targeted, and when he is, he’ll often be able to defend the pass rather than allow a completion and make a tackle.