The Dallas Cowboys (5-3) host their NFC East division rivals the New York Giants (2-7) this Sunday (11/12/23) at 4:25pm ET in week 10 of the 2023 NFL season. After walloping the Giants 40-0 on Sunday Night Football in week 1, the Cowboys are a whopping -17.5 against the spread this time. The over/under is set at 38.5 points.
This article provides Giants vs. Cowboys analysis, predictions and betting recommendations and explains why backing the Cowboys and laying the massive point spread is the best bet in this game.
Giants vs. Cowboys Prediction & Best Bet
There is not a realistic spread in this game that would be too high for us to lay the points. That’s how lopsided this matchup is.
The Cowboys’ defense completely dominated this Giants’ offense in the first week of the season. At the time it seemed like that would be an outlier performance for both teams, something we would look back on and simply chalk up to week 1 being weird sometimes.
But for the most part, that game foreshadowed what to expect for both teams for the rest of the season (at least so far). The Cowboys’ defense hasn’t been as dominant every week as it was that week, but it has been one of the best ball-hawking defenses in the league. The Giants’ offense is the worst in the league (32nd in DVOA, 31st in EPA) and is down to its rookie 3rd string QB who looked completely overmatched in each of the last two weeks.
While we don’t expect another 40-0 blowout, we do expect the Cowboys to be resting their starters in the second half of this game. The biggest hesitation with laying so many points is that the Giants could score some points during junk time that leads to a backdoor cover. While that is certainly a risk here, we don’t even know if Tommy DeVito will be able to move the ball against the Cowboys’ second string.
We also expect the Cowboys to have some extra motivation in this game after losing a huge game to the Eagles last week. They will be looking to bounce back in a big way and will end up blowing out the Giants for the second time this season.
Giants vs. Cowboys Prediction & Best Bet: Cowboys win 28-6, Cowboys -17
Giants vs. Cowboys Betting Odds
This is the largest spread of any game so far this season, and it’s getting larger. It has steadily climbed from as low as -10 before the Daniel Jones injury to -16 at most sportsbooks by mid-week. Then on Thursday it made another key jump to -17.5, making it a three-possession spread. It probably won’t climb any higher at this point, but the way it’s moving we can’t rule it out.
The over/under ranges from 38.5 to 39.5 depending on the book, but has held firm in that range.
The implied outcome of these odds is the Cowboys winning 28-10.
Giants vs. Cowboys Key Injuries
In addition to having their top two QBs and star TE Darren Waller on IR, the Giants could be without two starters on the offensive line, with Evan Neal looking more at risk of missing this game than Andrew Thomas is.
LT Tyron Smith is the key player to monitor for Dallas. He was a last-minute scratch two weeks ago but played last week, yet he missed the first two practices this week.
Giants vs. Cowboys Key Matchups
Check out the key matchups and mismatches for Giants vs. Cowboys below.
Giants offensive line vs. Cowboys pass rush
If the Giants have any hope of keeping this game relatively competitive, they need to find a way to slow down the Cowboys’ pass rush. Daniel Jones was sacked seven times when these teams played in week 1, and the constant pressure on him made it nearly impossible for the Giants to do anything offensively. It also directly contributed to multiple turnovers, not to mention a blocked field goal that was returned for a touchdown.
New York needs Andrew Thomas to play and play well in this game. The All-Pro left tackle played for the first time since week 1 last week and gave up 2 sacks and 3 hurries, according to Pro Football Focus. When he’s healthy, he is their best offensive lineman by a wide margin, so if he struggles again this week that is going to be bad news for the Giants once again.
CeeDee Lamb vs. Giants secondary
The Cowboys’ star wide receiver has been on an absolute tear. He has set new career highs in receiving yards in back-to-back games after a monstrous 11-catch, 191-yard game last week against the Eagles, when he also saw a career-high 16 targets. The week before he had a career-high 12 receptions on 14 targets and gained 158 yards against the Rams. He now has over 100 yards in three consecutive games.
CeeDee Lamb in his last 3 games:
– 30 receptions
– 466 yards
– 18 catches gaining 15+ yards
– 2 TDs pic.twitter.com/U6G6GWR51c
— PFF (@PFF) November 6, 2023
Lamb operates primarily out of the slot and will be matched up mostly against Giants nickel corner Cor’Dale Flott, who has been one of the Giants’ better corners this season. Among their corners with at least 100 snaps this season, he has allowed the fewest yards per reception (9.8) and the second-lowest completion percentage (60.7%) and passer rating (89.4). Of course those numbers are solid relative to his teammates, but unimpressive relative to league expectations, and Lamb will have a significant mismatch in this game.
The Cowboys might not need Lamb to have another big game this week. They can likely rely more on their running game and won’t need to be aggressive through the air if they are playing with a big lead as expected. But that seems to be the only thing that might stop Lamb from having another big game, and if he makes it four-straight games with over 100 yards, that is even more of a reason to like the Cowboys to cover the massive spread.