Golden State Warriors vs. Boston Celtics Preview (1/19/23): Prediction, Starting Lineups, Odds

By Braxton Reynolds | Jan 19, 2023, 10:50am

Contents

The Golden State Warriors (22-22) continue their road trip versus the familiar Boston Celtics (33-12). The Warriors will be without a few bench pieces as Kuminga, Wiseman, Green, and Iguodala are out. On the other end, Jaylen Brown is questionable after missing the past three games. He’s trending more towards probable than doubtful though.

Can Boston overcome their mental block and notch a key win? Odds, predictions, key matchups, and starting lineups are below.

Golden State Warriors vs. Boston Celtics Betting Odds

The Celtics are favored by a decent margin; the spread is -6.5 with a -238 moneyline. For Golden State’s +210 moneyline to be profitable long-term, the Warriors must win at least 33% of the time here. The over under is at a massive 241 despite the under being 21-6 in the last 27 meetings. The under is also 7-3 in Boston’s last 10 games following an ATS win.

Golden State Warriors vs. Boston Celtics Prediction

I took Boston to cover -5.5, their moneyline, and a sprinkle on under 241 total points. I would play this up to Celtics -7.

On a general level, Golden State’s road woes are well-documented; they are 5-17 with a -7.1 Net Rating. The Warriors play with absolutely no discipline and a frustratingly low amount of energy. As a result, they rank 30th in turnover percentage, 30th in opponent free throw rate, and 28th in Defensive Rating on the road. Meanwhile, the Celtics are 17-5 at home with a 9.8 Net Rating.

Golden State’s offense runs on screens, off-ball movement, and three-pointers. They are 3rd in Rim & 3 rate and love to get out in transition. Enter the Celtics, who rank 4th in defensive Rim & 3 SQ points per possession, 3rd in catch and shoot defense, and 4th in transition defense (per ShotQuality).

Marcus Smart, Derrick White, and Jaylen Brown excel at screen navigation, off-ball chasing, and on-ball defense, so Golden State’s guards must work for every inch of space. Jayson Tatum and Grant Williams are versatile, lengthy on-ball defenders, and the rim will be well-protected due to Robert Williams and Al Horford. Malcolm Brogdon has also produced on the defensive end, so Boston can legitimately throw out eight disruptive defenders.

On the other side, Boston currently ranks 2nd in adjusted Offensive ShotQuality. They are littered with playmakers and shot-makers, so Golden State’s defense at its peak would have their hands full. Jordan Poole will be hunted without remorse, and Klay’s defense has assuredly lost its luster. The Warriors are not compensating by dominantly protecting the rim too, so the Celtics will have multiple avenues to exploit them. Robert Williams is key here, as his vertical lob threat cannot be guarded by Kevon Looney and opens up the court.

Overall, I expect the Warriors offense to struggle here. It’s not the same as recent years; they are 24th in adjusted Offensive ShotQuality this season after being 3rd last year. And while I expect Boston’s offense to thrive, 242 total points is simply too much, especially given the recent matchups trends. If the Celtics mental block also reappears (which I don’t predict), then the under would also be heavily indicated.

Betting Trends

Warriors are 6-16 ATS in their last 22 road games
Celtics are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games following an ATS win
Under is 7-3 in Celtics last 10 games following an ATS win
Under is 21-6 in the last 27 meetings

Key Matchups

Which team will win the key matchups? Check out below for these vital battles.

Warriors Bench

Golden State’s already short bench will be missing Kuminga, Wiseman, Green, and Iguodala. Therefore, they are relying on Poole, DiVincenzo, Moody, and Lamb to hold up against a deep Boston bench that features White, Brogdon, and Grant Williams. The Celtics should easily win the bench minutes, but the Warriors can dramatically increase their cover chances if Poole and DiVincenzo go nuclear from three. It’s imperative that the Warriors bench doesn’t fall into its usual lull.

Tatum Efficiency

When Tatum is hitting his shots, the Celtics seem invincible. In Golden State’s earlier win this season, Tatum scored 18 points on 6/21 from the field and 2/9 from three – per ShotQuality, he was expected to score 12 more points than he did. Golden State has a chance if Tatum struggles, but he’s too skilled to lock down defensively. It will come down to whether Tatum is having an off night or not; it’s that simple.

Golden State Warriors Starting Lineup

PG: Stephen Curry
SG: Klay Thompson
SF: Andrew Wiggins
PF: Draymond Green
C: Kevon Looney

Golden State Warriors Team Pages

Boston Celtics Starting Lineup

PG: Marcus Smart
SG: Jaylen Brown
SF: Jayson Tatum
PF: Al Horford
C: Robert Williams

Boston Celtics Team Pages

Key Injuries

Golden State Warriors Injuries: Jonathan Kuminga (O), James Wiseman (O), JaMychal Green (O), Andre Iguodala (O)

Boston Celtics Injuries: Jaylen Brown (Q), Danilo Gallinari (O)

Braxton Reynolds

Braxton has been covering the NBA for Lineups since the 2022 season. He's worked with multiple collegiate coaching staffs regarding analytics and scouting, which has allowed him to understand the game on a deeper level. Braxton is also a contributor at Thunderous Intentions.