Golden State Warriors vs Cleveland Cavaliers: Prediction, Starting Lineups, Odds (1/20/23)

After a grueling overtime loss to the Boston Celtics, the Golden State Warriors hit the road on zero rest to battle it out against the Cleveland Cavaliers. Even when dealing with injury concerns, the Cavaliers still pose a legitimate threat as their defense is one of the most feared units in the league. The Warriors come limping into this one as well, potentially resting key players in the midst of a back-to-back. Can the Cavs take advantage and secure a key victory?

Golden State Warriors vs Cleveland Cavaliers Betting Odds

Oddsmakers certainly think so as they opened the Cleveland Cavaliers as a -4.5 favorite. After key injury news came out, they were quick to move the line to -8 while bettors have hit it up to -8.5 as of writing. Even without star guard Donovan Mitchell, the Cavaliers production has remained intact through more facilitation and looks down low. All while still maintaining an elite defense, specializing in shutting down the interior and smothering perimeter looks. Offense may be hard to come by for the Warriors should their perimeter weapons be spread thin.

As for the total, points are expected to be scored at a moderate pace as oddsmakers opened the number at 228.5. After the Warriors injury news came out, oddsmakers and bettors dropped the total down to 223.5 as the offensive identity took a major shift. Especially on the Warriors end, now relying on Curry more than ever as he will potentially be without Klay Thompson and are losing key depth pieces as well. He will be the sole focal point for an elite Cavs defense, needing his secondary scorers to step up. A feat they have struggled in.

Editor’s Note: Warriors ruled out multiple starters since release of betting section. 

Golden State Warriors vs Cleveland Cavaliers Prediction

The Pick: Pass, Warriors resting key players plus Cavs injury concerns

If you happened to grab the Cavs before the number took a drastic change, then congrats. Sadly, I did not and now will be passing on the game as there is too much injury uncertainty on both ends for me to confidently lay a large spread in this matchup. The total has also dropped too far for my liking for an under, but I will monitor it and potentially take an over if it continues to drop.

If the number were to drop, I would lean the Cavs as they played a very impressive game against the Grizzlies on the road without Donovan Mitchell in their last game out. A narrow loss, but comfortably covered the number. Their offensive identity shifted to more facilitation to garner open looks instead of relying on Mitchell’s elite production.

While the offense did an impressive job in the midst of change, they greatly benefited from their usual elite defensive play. This is a defense that can lead them to a deep playoff run, ranking near top of the league in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency and opposing two-point percentage in the paint. They also do a good job smothering opposing perimeter looks, making that a key metric to watch against the three-point reliant Warriors.

Betting Trends

• Warriors are 16-5 ATS in the last 21 meetings against each other
• Warriors are 7-0 ATS in the last seven meetings at Cleveland
• Under is 5-0 in the last five meetings against each other

Key Matchups

Can the Cavaliers limit Steph Curry and Jordan Poole’s scoring production?

Steph Curry vs Cavaliers perimeter defense

Without Klay Thompson, the Warriors are back to relying on Steph Curry as this year’s Warriors squad is as thin as ever. He isn’t alone though in terms of elite scoring production as Jordan Poole has stepped up as a go to playmaker.

The Cavaliers revitalization has come off the backs of their defense, a unit that specializes in forcing perimeter players to drive to the lane for contested shots against Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen.

The Cavs will be reluctant to get the same results, forcing the Warriors to beat them in the mid-range rather than the perimeter.

Verdict

Since I missed out on the opening numbers, this is a pass for me with too much injury uncertainty on both ends. Potentially taking an over should the number continue to drop.

Editor’s Note: Warriors ruled out multiple starters since release of betting section. 

Golden State Warriors Starting Lineup

PG: Ty Jerome
SG: Jordan Poole
SF: Anthony Lamb
PF: Jonathan Kuminga
C: Kevon Looney

Cleveland Cavaliers Starting Lineups

PG: Darius Garland
SG: Donovan Mitchell
SF: Caris LeVert
PF: Evan Mobley
C: Jarrett Allen

Key Injuries

Golden State Warriors Injuries: Klay Thompson (O), Jonathan Kuminga (Q), Andre Iguodala (O), JaMychal Green (Q), Stephen Curry (O), Andrew Wiggins (O), Draymond Green (O)

Cleveland Cavaliers Injuries: Donovan Mitchell (Q), Ricky Rubio (O)