Golden State Warriors vs Dallas Mavericks (1/5/22): Starting Lineups, Matchup Preview, Betting Odds, Live Stream

Golden State Warriors vs Dallas Mavericks (1/5/22)

The Golden State Warriors (29-7) travel to face the Dallas Mavericks (19-18) Wednesday night. The Warriors are 1st in the West and will seek to extend their lead on the Phoenix Suns. Currently, the Warriors are 2-0 in January after finishing December with a 9-4 record. Although the potential return of Klay Thompson on January 9th will boost the Warriors, they have not been a team desperate for his services. They have the best defensive rating in the NBA (102.2) and the 2nd best net rating (9.8). The team may have three award winners by the end of the season, as Stephen Curry (MVP), Draymond Green (DPOY), and Jordan Poole (MIP) are among the favorites for their respective award. In this game, the Warriors will still be without Klay (achilles) and James Wiseman (knee). Andre Iguodala (knee soreness) is questionable to play after missing the last game against the Miami Heat. With Wiseman still out, the Warriors will continue to lean on veteran Kevon Looney at the center position. 

The Mavericks are 2-0 in January and on a three game winning streak. They are coming off a convincing 14 point victory against Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets. Luka Doncic is averaging 24.9 PPG this season and has shot 32.1% from three. His play has been underwhelming, and he has not replicated last season where he produced 27.7 PPG and 35% from three. Doncic is averaging a career high in FGA per game, so his dip in production cannot be attributed to a decrease in touches. The Mavericks have benefited from the emergence of Jalen Brunson, who is producing a career high in PPG, APG, RPG, and SPG. With the reliability of Brunson as a ball handler, Doncic has some pressure taken off of him to create for his teammates every play. In  this matchup against the Warriors, the Mavericks may see some players return to action. Trey Burke (COVID), Boban Marjanovic (COVID), and Willie Cauley-Stein (personal) are questionable to play. Unfortunately, Kristaps Porzingis and Isaiah Thomas will be unavailable for the Mavericks due to COVID. The loss of Porzingis is extremely detrimental to the Mavericks because Porzingis is a 20/10 threat every night. The Mavericks must lean on Doncic and Brunson once again in this contest. 

Golden State Warriors vs Dallas Mavericks Betting Odds

This is the first meeting this season between the Warriors and Mavericks. In this game, I am going with the Warriors money line and would pick up to Warriors -7.5 for the spread. Look for the Warriors to slowly and consistently build a lead on the Mavericks throughout the game. I expect the Warriors to win each quarter by a small amount, which will eventually result in a solid lead of at least 10 points by the end of the game. I would not bet Warriors -9.5 or more on the spread, however, because the Mavericks have Luka Doncic. He is at least a top ten player in the world and can make any game closer than it should be on paper. The Warriors bench is one of the deepest in the league, so the Mavericks must win the starting lineup minutes, which is unlikely. Overall, the Warriors will continue their run of dominance and beat the short-handed Mavericks through Stephen Curry, shooting, defense, and depth.

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TV Schedule

Date: 1/5/22
Time: 7:30 PM ET
Arena: American Airlines Center – Dallas, TX
Channel: ESPN

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Golden State Warriors Starting Lineup

PG: Stephen Curry
SG: Gary Payton II
SF: Andrew Wiggins
PF: Draymond Green
C: Kevon Looney

Golden State Warriors Analysis

The Warriors have been a team on a mission this season with the goal of recapturing their former glory. Curry is shooting a career low 39.3% from deep, but that number is still excellent on his number of attempts and the difficulty of them. He is averaging 27.2 PPG, 5.2 RPG, 6.1 APG while playing potentially the best defense of his career. With Klay Thompson injured, Jordan Poole has filled in as the second scorer on the team. Last game against the Heat, Poole came off the bench and scored 32 points on 12/17 shooting from the field. He has increased his numbers from 12.0 PPG, 1.8 RPG, 1.9 APG last season to 18.1 PPG, 3.3 RPG, 3.4 APG. When Klay returns, Poole will assume a Tyler Herro role as the main scorer and playmaker off the bench. The fearsome Warriors second unit will become even more terrifying and efficient, which was a staple of their pre-Durant rosters.

Draymond Green looks rejuvenated and is playing outstanding defense. He has mentored Andrew Wiggins into becoming a defensive stopper while teaching rookie Jonathan Kuminga defensive technique and tricks. Draymond is one of the best team defenders with perhaps the highest defensive IQ in the NBA. This team is filled with savvy veterans that understand the game of basketball at its most fundamental level. They are built to succeed in the playoffs and are expected to at least make the Western Conference Finals. Anything less would be a major disappointment for them.

Dallas Mavericks Starting Lineup

PG: Luka Doncic
SG: Jalen Brunson
SF: Dorian Finney-Smith
PF: Maxi Kleber
C: Dwight Powell

Dallas Mavericks Analysis

The Mavericks have a young superstar, which only a couple of teams can say at this point. Luka is the engine for the offense through his scoring and playmaking. He has proven to be clutch in the playoffs the past two seasons against the Clippers. While the Mavericks have useful players, they are lacking the true second option that can bring a championship to Dallas. Kristaps has been a good player, but he fades into the background at times and is more a 2b or 3rd option. His reputation as a shooter outpaces his actual production. Kristaps has not been aggressive enough in the paint and has been content as a spot up shooter. The Mavericks need a paint presence in order to force defenses to shade inside. This shading would give spot up shooters more space on the three point line to get clean shots. Kristaps does not have the inside scoring or the aggressiveness to play the center position, but he is not mobile enough to consistently guard the modern power forward or switch on the perimeter.

Dorian Finney-Smith and Reggie Bullock have been solid 3&D players for the Mavericks, which is a skill every championship team needs. Bullock has struggled with his shot this season, but he is a career 38.5% shooter from deep and shot 41% last season for the Knicks. Brunson has been a great pick and roll ball handler this year. The Mavericks are close to becoming a force in the West, but they are a piece or two away. Their guards and wings are good enough to win, but the power forward and center positions need an upgrade. Exploring a trade for Myles Turner or Domantas Sabonis is worth the effort and assets for the Mavericks.

Golden State Warriors vs Dallas Mavericks Daily Fantasy Picks

I like Poole to clear 20 points and 5 assists in this matchup. The Mavericks do not have an elite perimeter guard defender, so Poole should produce for the Warriors. Although the Mavericks have wings that can matchup with Andrew Wiggins, I expect him to clear 20 points as well. He is shooting 43.5% from three this season and has been getting open looks. Curry will put pressure on the Mavericks to send help on defense, so Wiggins will see open shots. 

Although Brunson has been an efficient pick and roll ball handler, I do not like his matchup here. The Warriors own the best pick and roll ball handler defense in the NBA by allowing only 0.75 Points Per Possession. The Warriors are 2nd in the NBA in opponent points in the paint and allow only 41.2 PPG in the paint.  Even though the Warriors defense is great, Luka is too talented to not fill the box score. However, Brunson may see a dip in his numbers from this stifling defense.

I am currently a junior at University of Pennsylvania majoring in Psychology. I have spent the last few years working with various UPenn athletics teams and contributing to the UPenn Sports Analytics Group. My primary interests reside in NBA, NFL, and College Football.

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