A rematch of last season’s first-round playoff series adds another chapter when Golden State continues its road trip in the Mile High City against the Denver Nuggets.
Take a look below at our betting picks and the current odds, as well as the projected starting lineups and updated injury reports for both teams.
Golden State Warriors Vs. Denver Nuggets Betting Odds
Golden State is an 11.5-point road dog against the Denver Nuggets, the best team in a top-heavy Western Conference. The Warriors are expected to miss Andre Iguodala for this game, although he has been sidelined for most of the 2022-23 campaign.
Denver will be without Jack White and Collin Gillespie, two non-rotations players. Aaron Gordon is listed as questionable ahead of Thursday night’s bout with the Dubs.
Golden State Warriors Vs. Denver Nuggets Prediction
Golden State is fresh off blowing a comfortable 11-point lead against the Minnesota Timberwolves in an overtime loss last night and has the second night of a back-to-back against the Denver Nuggets tonight. It is not like the Warriors to blow fourth-quarter leads, regardless of whether they are at home or on the road, so this is a bit concerning.
Meanwhile, despite a great season thus far, the Nuggets have struggled over their past five games, holding a 2-3 record. In three of those games, Denver failed to eclipse 100 points, which is incredibly strange considering it has the league’s best offense.
The biggest issue for Denver all season long has been bench play (29th in bench net rating), but that happens to be a problem for Golden State (27th in bench net rating), too. It is an ideal matchup for the Nuggets, as they do virtually everything else better.
While this could be a “punt” game for Golden State, there is not any indication yet that the Warriors will rest their key players. If they don’t rest Curry, Thompson, or Wiggins, I like them to cover here, despite their 8-16 ATS road record. They won’t win, but 12 points is too much, especially since they have won three of their past four and have not lost by 12 or more points in over two weeks.
- Golden State is 8-16 ATS on the road in 2022-23
- Denver is 16-10-1 ATS at home in 2022-23
- The combined over record of these two teams is 53-46-2 in 2022-23
Draymond Green, one of the best interior defenders of all time, and Nikola Jokic, one of the best big men of all time, make up our key matchup between the Warriors and Nuggets. See below whether Jokic can continue to put up ludicrous stats or if Green can hold him to a modest output!
Nikola Jokic vs. Draymond Green
In their first matchup at the beginning of this season, Nikola Jokic posted his usual stat line: 26 points, 12 rebounds, and ten assists on 7-for-13 shooting from the field. It really is ridiculous how good he is at this game. Additionally, Draymond Green fouled out in this matchup, proving that not even one of the best interior defenders can guard Jokic.
Jokic has had a triple-double in five of his past six games; he came up just short in a matchup against Joel Embiid. Green does not have the size to defend Jokic, who is over seven feet tall and is objectively stronger than him.
Jokic has shot over 63% from the floor in his past 23 games, and I don’t see a world where Draymond Green drastically changes that; he has had bigger, stronger bodies leaning on him all season long. Even Green’s quick hands and impressive rim-protecting ability won’t be enough. Advantage: Jokic.
Golden State Warriors Starting Lineup
Denver Nuggets Starting Lineups
Golden State Warriors Injuries: Andre Iguodala (Out)
Denver Nuggets Injuries: Collin Gillespie (Out), Jack White (Out), Aaron Gordon (Q)