Golden State Warriors vs LA Lakers Game 3: Prediction, Starting Lineups, Odds (5/6/23)

It was a Anthony Davis no-show type of performance that we have been accustomed to as he has a tendency to disappear after a monster performance. That gave the Warriors the ability to pull ahead, sealing a game two victory and tying up the series. Now heading back to Los Angeles, the Lakers have the ability to test the road Warriors, a team that drastically underperforms when away from home. Following recent history, my prediction is that we are in for an offensive clunker on both ends of the court.

Golden State Warriors vs LA Lakers Prediction

In one of the more head scratching cases in NBA history, the road Warriors became a serious trend as they maintained their odd behavior throughout the course of the season. For an elite team fresh off a NBA championship, the Warriors have been unable to string together any sort of consistency as their efficiency drastically drops off when hitting the road. Per TeamRankings, their Offensive and Defensive Efficiency drop off a few spots in comparison to their home splits.

That trend has continued into the playoffs as the Warriors struggled in Sacramento until a pivotal game seven where Steph Curry reminded everyone that he is one of the best point guards in NBA history. The rest of the Warriors still struggled overall, giving me conviction that we will see more of the same against the Lakers defense who excel at smothering the perimeter. The Lakers rank third in Opposing Three Point Percentage by holding opponents to a lowly 34.5% from deep.

The Lakers have also made it known that their mission is to have someone else beat them by getting the ball out of Curry’s hands when he enters the halfcourt. To some avail, yet still susceptible to getting burned as Curry is one of the craftier non-ball players in the NBA. Still, forcing the offense to run through someone else has halted the Warriors scoring pace, playing directly towards the unders favor.

Golden State Warriors vs LA Lakers Betting Odds

After thoroughly controlling game two, oddsmakers have tempered their expectations of them getting the win on the road in game three as they opened Golden State as a +2 underdog. Bettors are in agreement as well, backing the Lakers up to -3 as of writing. History is not on their side in a trends perspective, going 1-4 ATS in both their last five games in Los Angeles and in their last five matchups against the Lakers overall.

As for the total, points are expected to be scored at a quick pace as oddsmakers opened the number at 229.5. Bettors were quick to pounce on the under, taking the number down to as low as 228 in some shops. The drop off in efficiency on defense gives some cause for concern yet the Lakers already play at an under friendly pace with their emphasis in interior scoring. The drop off in offensive production for the Warriors is what will decide if the under ticket cashes.

Betting Trends

• Warriors are 1-4 ATS in the last five meetings in Los Angeles
• Warriors are 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings overall against the Lakers
• The over is 7-3 in the last ten matchups against each other

Key Matchups

Can the Warriors continue to limit Anthony Davis?

Anthony Davis Vs. Warriors interior defense

Underwhelming is an understatement when describing Anthony Davis’s last performance as he finished game two with 11 points while going 5-11 from the field.

In a series dubbed “Steph Vs. LeBron”, the Lakers actual success hinges on the Brow’s ability to take over in the interior as he plays the role as the deciding factor. The Warriors know this and have done a masterful job of handing a hand in his face at all times with help side coverage sagging into his opposite side.

Expecting more of the same, this forces the Lakers into having to beat the Warriors from over the top which is a cause for concern as they are a horrific perimeter shooting unit. This style of play will lead to scoring lulls, giving the under life in what will be an offensive clunker of a game from LA.

Verdict

Take the under at no lower than 227.5 in what will be a defensive slugfest on both ends of the court.

Golden State Warriors Starting Lineup

PG: Stephen Curry
SG: Klay Thompson
SF: Andrew Wiggins
PF: Draymond Green
C: Kevon Looney

LA Lakers Starting Lineups

PG: D’Angelo Russell
SG: Austin Reaves
SF: Jarred Vanderbilt
PF: LeBron James
C: Anthony Davis

Key Injuries

Golden State Warriors Injuries: Andre Iguodala (O), Patrick Baldwin Jr (O), Ryan Rollins (O)

LA Lakers Injuries: LeBron James (P), Anthony Davis (P), Mo Bamba (Q)