Golden State Warriors vs. Los Angeles Lakers Game 6: Prediction, Starting Lineups, Odds (5/12/23)

The Golden State Warriors (2-3) stare down elimination on the road against the Los Angeles Lakers (3-2) on Friday night. Andrew Wiggins is questionable with a rib injury, and Anthony Davis is expected to play after leaving Game 5 due to injury. Can Golden State avoid elimination one more time?

Check out below for Warriors vs Lakers predictions, odds, trends, and starting lineups.

Golden State Warriors vs. Los Angeles Lakers Prediction

Prediction: Lakers Moneyline & Lakers -3

The injuries favor the Lakers. Anthony Davis avoided a serious injury and seems set to play at or close to full strength. That’s massive for Los Angeles since he’s their best scorer, defender, and rebounder. With Davis on the court this series, the Lakers have produced a 119 Offensive Rating and 103 Defensive Rating. Meanwhile, there’s a serious chance that Wiggins misses this contest. Golden State lacks wing defenders, so his absence would be catastrophic versus LeBron James and the Lakers.

Los Angeles owns the superior depth as role players are stepping up and producing third-star numbers. Reaves, Russell, Hachimura, and Walker IV can all score in a variety of ways, and one of them seems to elevate at the perfect moment. Compare that to a Warriors team that doesn’t receive many contributions outside of their usual starting five. Poole was supposed to be the sixth man scorer, but he’s been stuck in a massive shooting slump.

The Lakers’ defense has also defended Curry and Thompson effectively. They are switching at the right moments, especially off-ball action that the duo utilizes to create chaos. Los Angeles’ guards and forwards have navigated on-ball screens well too, and Golden State can’t drag a center into a high pick and roll because Davis is obliterating the action. Overall, Los Angeles’ defense is much better suited to slow down the Warriors than vice versa.

Finally, it’s difficult to simply dismiss Golden State’s road woes by claiming they will step up in an elimination game. During the regular season on the road, they were 11-30, 30th in turnover percentage, 24th in opponent free throw rate, and 24th in opponent offensive rebound percentage. The Warriors managed to go 2-2 at Sacramento, but they are currently 0-2 at Los Angeles.

Golden State Warriors vs. Los Angeles Lakers Betting Odds

The Lakers are favored by three points, and they own a playable -150 moneyline. For Golden State’s +136 moneyline to hold a positive expected value, they must win at least 43% of the time. The Warriors are 0-5 ATS in the last five meetings in Los Angeles, and the under is 4-0 in the last four meetings in Los Angeles.

Betting Trends

  • Warriors are 17-38-1 ATS in their last 56 road games
  • Over is 13-6 in Lakers last 19 overall
  • Warriors are 0-5 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Los Angeles
  • Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Los Angeles

Key Matchups

Which teams will win the game-determining matchups?

Game 6 Klay Thompson

Klay has a reputation for dominating in Game 6 ever since the 2016 series versus Oklahoma City. He’s at 17.8 PPG on a 38/43/83 shooting split, and the Warriors own a putrid 96 Offensive Rating and 113 Defensive Rating with him on the court. Thompson’s shot selection has definitely been questionable at times, especially down the stretch. If he can resist some of his poor pull-up attempts and have an efficient night, then the Warriors have a chance to force a Game 7.

Anthony Davis Health

He’s ready to roll, but his injury history is scary. It’s imperative that Davis remains healthy for the entire game as his interior scoring, rebounding, and all-around defense is too valuable to lose. If he’s able to maintain his recent level of play for the entire game, then Los Angeles is favored to win this matchup.

Golden State Warriors Starting Lineup

PG: Stephen Curry
SG: Gary Payton II
SF: Klay Thompson
PF: Andrew Wiggins
C: Draymond Green

Los Angeles Lakers Starting Lineups

PG: D’Angelo Russell
SG: Austin Reaves
SF: Jarred Vanderbilt
PF: LeBron James
C: Anthony Davis

Key Injuries

Golden State Warriors Injuries: Andrew Wiggins (Q), Andre Iguodala (O), Patrick Baldwin Jr (Q), Ryan Rollins (O)

Los Angeles Lakers Injuries: LeBron James (P), Anthony Davis (P), Mo Bamba (D)

Post
Braxton has been covering the NBA for Lineups since the 2022 season. He's worked with multiple collegiate coaching staffs regarding analytics and scouting, which has allowed him to understand the game on a deeper level. Braxton is also a contributor at Thunderous Intentions.

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