Golden State Warriors vs Milwaukee Bucks Preview (12/13/22): Prediction, Starting Lineups, Odds

The past two NBA championship teams face off when Golden State travels to Milwaukee to face the Bucks on Tuesday night! Check out the full analysis for the game below, as well as our picks, predictions, projected starting lineups, injury news, and current betting odds.

Golden State Warriors Vs. Milwaukee Bucks Betting Odds

The Golden State Warriors are road underdogs against the Milwaukee Bucks in Fiserv Forum. These two title contenders could be without their best wing players: Khris Middleton and Andrew Wiggins. Wiggins suffered a groin injury, while Middleton sprained his ankle this past weekend. The Warriors also will miss Andre Iguodala, while Milwaukee is still without Joe Ingles and Wesley Matthews.

Golden State Warriors Vs. Milwaukee Bucks Prediction

Finally, after waiting nearly a fourth of the 2022-23 season, the Milwaukee Bucks had Khris Middleton back in the lineup. Middleton helped the shooting struggles, raising the offensive rating over three points in his five games, despite not being very efficient.

Unfortunately, Middleton suffered a minor ankle sprain this last weekend and had to exit the game against the Houston Rockets; the Bucks lost to the Houston Rockets. When this article was written, Middleton’s status for this Tuesday night bout against Golden State was unclear.

If Milwaukee has to play without Middleton, it will need to rely heavily on its defense, which ranks second in defensive rating behind only the Cleveland Cavaliers, to offset his absence. Additionally, the Bucks need to utilize their significant frontcourt advantage to hold off Golden State at home.

The Golden State Warriors started the 2022-23 season with an abysmal record and an even worse defensive rating. You could call it an “extended Finals hangover,” but some might believe it was deeper than that. Draymond Green sucker-punched Jordan Poole in the preseason, which messed with this team’s chemistry.

Luckily for Golden State, it has turned a corner in recent weeks, going 6-3 in its past nine games while also improving its offensive (8th in NBA) and defensive rating (21st in NBA.) Bench play, depth, and defense were major concerns in the season’s first few weeks.

The Warriors have played well at home this season, but their road issues persist. Frankly, I don’t know the last team I’ve seen with this much of a gap between home and road play. The Dubs have a 10.2 net rating at home but a -7.8 net rating on the road. It’s hard to explain the difference contextually, but imagine that they play as well as Boston (combined net rating) when they’re at home and worse than Houston, Detroit, or Orlando (combined net rating) on the road.

I will take the Milwaukee Bucks against the spread and not think twice about it. Golden State is 3-10 against the spread on the road and has done virtually nothing to fix its issues away from Chase Center. If Middleton plays, that makes this bet all the sweeter, but I still trust the Bucks without him.

Betting Trends

  • Golden State is 3-10 ATS on the road in 2022-23
  • Milwaukee is 10-5 ATS at home in 2022-23
  • The combined over record of these two teams is 26-26-1 in 2022-23

Key Matchups

The key matchup in this game is surprisingly not between Steph Curry and Giannis Antetokounmpo, two MVP candidates. It is instead between both teams’ frontcourts, which have caused two different starts to the 2022-23 season for Golden State and Milwaukee.

Milwaukee Bucks vs. Golden State Warriors: Battle of the Frontcourts

Milwaukee’s massive advantage against virtually every other team in the NBA is the strength of its frontcourt. Besides Giannis Antetokounmpo, arguably the best player in the NBA, the Bucks also have DPOY front-runner Brook Lopez and one of the best bench-scoring bigs, Bobby Portis.

Milwaukee is the second-best rebounding team in the NBA, while Golden State is in the bottom five. The answer here is quite obvious when considering the Bucks’ dominance in the paint and the Dubs’ defensive issues on the road. Advantage: Milwaukee Bucks Frontcourt.

Golden State Warriors Starting Lineup

PG: Steph Curry
SG: Jordan Poole
SF: Klay Thompson
PF: Draymond Green
C: Kevon Looney

Milwaukee Bucks Starting Lineups

PG: Jrue Holiday
SG: Grayson Allen
SF: Khris Middleton
PF: Giannis Antetokounmpo
C: Brook Lopez

Key Injuries

Golden State Warriors Injuries: Andre Iguodala (Out), Andrew Wiggins (Out)

Milwaukee Bucks Injuries: Wesley Matthews (Out), Joe Ingles (Out), Khris Middleton (Q)

Drew is one of the NBA Lead Writers at Lineups.com, specializing in betting content such as game predictions and player props. With a deep knowledge of players and prospects, Drew has an extensive edge in covering everything NBA.

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