Golden State Warriors vs. Orlando Magic Preview (11/3/22): Prediction, Starting Lineups, Odds

The Golden State Warriors (3-5) travel to face the rebuilding Orlando Magic (1-7) on Thursday night. Golden State is coming off a 116-109 loss to Miami where they led by 8 entering the 4th quarter. Orlando, on the other hand, recently lost 116-108 to the surging Thunder.

Will the Warriors right the ship versus a lottery-bound Magic squad? Odds, predictions, key matchups, and starting lineups are below.

Golden State Warriors vs. Orlando Magic Betting Odds

The Warriors enter this matchup favored; the consensus spread is -8 Warriors with a couple of sportsbooks offering it at -7.5. Orlando’s moneyline can be found at +275, which means their theoretical win percentage must be at least 27% for a long-term profit.

Golden State Warriors vs. Orlando Magic Prediction

I am backing Golden State to cover -7.5 here against Orlando.

Despite the recent team struggles, the Warriors starting lineup has actually dominated opponents. Their core four of Curry, Thompson, Wiggins, and Green have all been successful in various combinations of pairs and trios as well.

Lineup CombinationsMinutesNet Rating
Curry - Thompson - Wiggins - Green - Looney9327.5
Curry - Thompson - Wiggins - Green14813
Curry - Thompson - Wiggins1955.3
Curry - Thompson - Green16311

The bench, meanwhile, has severely underperformed their collective talent and consistently allows opponents to storm back into the game. Jordan Poole is the main culprit, as his slow offensive start to the season – 44/32/80 shooting split – hasn’t adequately compensated for the awful defense. The chart below displays total minutes played and net plus minus per 100 possessions. For example, a mark of 14 would mean the Warriors score 14 more points per 100 possessions when that player is on the court versus when he is off. The chart spotlights Golden State’s horrific second unit play.

Warriors Plus Minus

However, Orlando’s bench is defanged at the moment because injuries savagely struck them. Anthony, Fultz, Harris, and Isaac – four key players – are all out, while Ross is questionable. Therefore, Golden State can hold their lead when the benches enter the game and subsequently build it even further after the starters are done resting.

These injuries have also caused the Magic to trot out a jumbo lineup with Ross being the shortest at 6’6”. It certainly has its advantages, but that intriguing formula is somewhat doomed against the Warriors. Curry and Klay will lose Orlando’s backcourt through the plethora of screens, while Wiggins, Draymond, and Looney are versatile enough defensively to hold up against Orlando’s size and unorthodox playmaking.

The Magic’s gigantic lineup also hinders their transition offense, as they rank 26th at 1.03 points per possession (this mark would have ranked 30th last season). Golden State has defended half-court offense far better than transition offense, so Orlando isn’t suited to exploit their current weakness.

Overall, this contest is an excellent bounce back spot for a Warriors team seething after their blown lead to the Heat, especially since an overturned foul call potentially cost them the game. Orlando’s lineup experiments also likely fail versus Golden State since their non-traditional point guard and shooting guard slots cannot defend Curry (30 PPG) or Klay (13 PPG). The Magic are assuredly an entertaining team, but the on-court production isn’t at the level to challenge even a slumping Warriors team.

Betting Trends

  • Warriors are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games overall
  • Magic are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games
  • Under is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings

Key Matchups

Which team will win the positional matchups? Check out below for these vital battles.

Converting Open Threes

Both defenses are hemorrhaging open/wide open three-point attempts, which are when the nearest defender resides 4+ feet from the shooter. Orlando is allowing 34.1 per game (3rd most), while Golden State is at 33.5 (4th most). The Warriors hold the definite edge in terms of converting their offensive opportunities because Curry and Klay are all-time shooters while Wiggins and Poole are legitimate threats.

The Magic, meanwhile, are 28th in 3PT% at an ugly 31%, and their jumbo lineup isn’t doing them any favors in this department. If Orlando can convert their attempts at a considerably higher rate than the Warriors, then their chances of covering are significantly boosted.

Bol Bol vs. Kevon Looney

Curry and Looney as a screen pair are producing an absurd 1.47 points per possession on 10 screens per game. The 7’2” Bol must utilize his surprisingly fluid mobility and 7’8” wingspan to suffocate the derived passing lanes. If he can neutralize the roll threat while momentarily stalling Curry through his length, then the Warriors will lose a significant offensive tool.

On the other end, Bol is a terror in transition who covers ground rapidly. He’s the key for the Magic exploiting the Warriors weak transition defense. His improved playmaking is also noteworthy, as the center always has the 5th passing lane open to him (above the defender’s head).

Golden State Warriors Starting Lineup

PG: Stephen Curry
SG: Klay Thompson
SF: Andrew Wiggins
PF: Draymond Green
C: Kevon Looney

Orlando Magic Starting Lineups

PG: Terrence Ross
SG: Franz Wagner
SF: Paolo Banchero
PF: Wendell Carter Jr
C: Bol Bol

Key Injuries

Golden State Warriors Injuries: Donte DiVincenzo (O), Andre Iguodala (O)

Orlando Magic Injuries: Terrence Ross (Q), Cole Anthony (O), Markelle Fultz (O), Gary Harris (O), Jonathan Isaac (O), Moe Wagner (O)

Braxton has been covering the NBA for Lineups since the 2022 season. He's worked with multiple collegiate coaching staffs regarding analytics and scouting, which has allowed him to understand the game on a deeper level. Braxton is also a contributor at Thunderous Intentions.

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