The Sacramento Kings just capped off one of the greatest turnarounds in all of sports as they snapped a 16 yearlong playoff drought. Their reward? A series matchup against the Golden State Warriors. Even after proving they are for real over the course of 82 games, oddsmakers still tempered their expectations to win the series by opening them as a +230 series underdog. Winning games 1 and 2 are a must, but the Kings defense takes a nosedive when defending their home court. A major reason I believe the over cashes in my Warriors Vs. Kings prediction.
Golden State Warriors vs Sacramento Kings Betting Odds
While oddsmakers think less of the Kings chances to pull out the series win, they have game one much tighter as they opened the Kings as a +1 underdog. Bettors were quick to back Sacramento, flipping the Kings to a -1 favorite in game one as of writing. Everyone knows the narrative about the road Warriors and how brutal they can be when away from home, but their playoff experience is unparalleled and will be poised to block out the rambunctious crowd noise.
As for the total, oddsmakers believe points will be scored at a blistering pace as they opened the total at 237.5. Bettors are in the same belief, taking the total up to as high as 238.5 in some shops. The Kings and Warriors share a unique trait in that they both suffer from contrasting performances in their home and away splits.
Golden State Warriors vs Sacramento Kings Prediction
The Pick: Over 238
With that said, I will take the over at no higher than 239 as points should be scored at a blistering pace on both ends of the court. The Kings defense at home can not be overstated enough as they run as one of the worst units in the league. Per TeamRankings, the Sacramento Kings defensive efficiency ranks second to last in the league this season when at home. A sharp contrast to when they are on the road, ranking 10th in the NBA in defensive efficiency.
Their lack of defense plays right into the Warriors hands as it has been a common theme throughout the year of how bad they play when on the road. Their lack of play stems more to their lack of defense while their offense just slightly takes a dip in efficiency. Coupling the combination of their playoff experience against crazed crowds and more open looks for their lethal shooters in Curry and Thompson with the Kings defensive regression, the Warriors should have no issue in establishing their offense out the gate.
Pace of scoring also plays towards our favor as Sacramento has built their offensive identity of turning games into a track meet. De’Aaron Fox is the fastest guard in the league, constantly looking to push the pace and scramble the opposing defense. That opens up gaps for their shooters to exploit, connecting on open shots in the fast break as the sixth most efficient fast break unit per TeamRankings. Golden State is no stranger to this style of play, ranking ninth in the fast break as they can bury opponents from the perimeter in a hurry.
- Warriors are 5-13 ATS in the last 18 meetings against each other
- Under is 6-2-1 in the last nine meetings overall
- Under is 3-0-1 in the last four meetings in Sacramento
What is to be expected when Kevon Looney and Domantas Sabonis clash in the interior?
Kevon Looney Vs. Domantas Sabonis
Domantas Sabonis is an unreal offensive talent with a soft touch and good vision at the forward position, yet is an undersized anchor on the defensive end. That opens the floor for Looney to abuse the glass, putting Sabonis in uncomfortable positions should he get in foul trouble early.
On the other end, it will be intriguing to see if Looney stays on him or if they shade him on the opposite side with Draymond Green picking up the assignment. Either way, Sabonis’s ability to stretch out the court opens up potential scoring opportunities for someone else with the Warriors’ size being away from the rim. That’s the benefit of having a lethal scoring forward, an area that the Warriors lack in.
Domantas Sabonis vs New Orleans Pelicans
— A Walking Highlight (@11AWH) April 5, 2023
Take the over at no higher than 239 as this is poised to be a thrilling offensive track meet.
Golden State Warriors Starting Lineup
Sacramento Kings Starting Lineups
Golden State Warriors Injuries: Andrew Wiggins (P), Andre Iguodala (O), Ryan Rollins (O)
Sacramento Kings Injuries: Harrison Barnes (P), Davion Mitchell (O), Matthew Dellavedova (O)