We are down to the final four teams, and the top two seeds from the NFC are facing off in San Francisco. The 49ers are touchdown favorites, and demolished the Packers earlier this season. The over/under is set at 45. Both teams finished the season 13-3, and both had a ton of success on the road and at home. San Francisco was terrific on both sides of the ball this season, scoring 29.8 points per game, which is the second most in the league. Defensively, they allowed 18.8 points per game, which was the fifth fewest. The Packers weren’t too far behind, allowing just 19.8 points per game. However, their run defense was in the bottom half, and the 49ers are one of the better rushing teams in the league. Green Bay also lacked in offense at times this season, and the weapons are a bit underwhelming outside of Davante Adams and the run game. They will have their work cut out for them facing this 49ers defense. For odds line movement, and full matchup history, see the Green Bay Packers At San Francisco 49ers Matchup Page.
Date: Sunday, January 19th,
Time: 6:40 ET
Location: Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, CA
Green Bay Packers: Bryan Bulaga (P), Alex Light (P)
San Francisco 49ers: Raheem Mostert (P), Mark Nzeocha (P)
Green Bay Packers Analysis
Green Bay’s offense has been fairly average this season, ranking 16th in passing yards per game, 15th in rushing yards, and 14th in points per game. They ran a pretty remote offense, averaging 5.4 yards per game. Defensively the key is going to be stopping the run game, where they ranked 23rd in rushing yards allowed this season. I worry for the Packers run defense here failing to stop the 49ers rushing attack, which would give San Francisco the control of the game. The Packers threw the ball 59% of the time this season, which is a bit odd given they have a running back duo that have been successful this year. They scored 66% of the time in the red zone, and while the 49ers didn’t allow a ton of points this year, they were beatable in the red zone. Davante Adams has been dominating in targets for the Packers, which makes sense given the only viable wideouts have been Allen Lazard. He has seen 13, 16, 13, and once again topped double-digit targets in the Divisional Round. The rushing game is going to need to get going, and Jones is averaging 17.8 touches per game this season. Jamaal Williams averaged over ten touches per game, and both worked well in the passing game this season. The 49ers did allow the second fewest receiving yards to opposing backs this season, and did not allow a receiving touchdown.
Green Bay Packers Depth Chart
San Fransisco 49ers Analysis
These two teams a pretty similar in terms of their overall team stats, although the offenses are a bit different. San Francisco averaged 29.7 points per game, and also averaged the third most rushing yards per game. With Green Bay ranking 23rd in rushing yards allowed. Raheem Mostert and Tevin Coleman are in a spot to run wild. I am not judging the success of last week’s game because of Seattle’s situation in the backfield. Despite Jimmy Garoppolo’s inconsistency at times, they ranked 5th in yards per play, and were average in passing yards per game (230.2). The 49ers defense is going to be key this week, holding opposing teams to just 167 passing yards per game, and 4.6 yards per play. They were beaten by run a few times this season, but it was by more dynamic backs. San Francisco was a well balanced offense, running the ball 50.4 times and throwing 49.5. They also were a great third down team, converting 44.8% of the time. They held opposing teams to just a 32.3% rate in third down conversion. These are key stats that go to advantage of the 49ers. Emmanuel Sanders had another down target game, and saw just 14 targets over the final three regular season games. I wouldn’t read too much into last week given they didn’t throw a ton. He looked fully healthy on Saturday, which is a plus for this offense. Deebo Samuel saw some solid target games and also get a
San Francisco 49ers Depth Chart
The 49ers are sitting as -7.5 favorites, and the over/under is at 45.5 I would love to see the 49ers get to about -6.5 by the end of the week to lock into that. Both teams were positive in the ATS department, as you’d expect. The Packers and 49ers were both average over/under teams this season. I am looking at the under to start the week, and would bite on the 49ers if they can get down to a true touchdown spread. The under has gone in four of the last five Packers games, and the same goes for games on the road. Historical data is not an ideal area to look when looking at over/under, we have seen numerous changes to both these teams over the last ten meetings. Earlier this season the over/under was set at 48, and the under hit, but that was with the Packers scoring just eight points and the 49ers putting up 37. I wouldn’t bank on the Packers scoring eight points again, and the same goes for the 49ers scoring 37.
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Daily Fantasy: 49ers To Attack Packers Run Defense
San Francisco ran the ball 47 times in the game against Minnesota, and attacking with the run should be the same game plan against the Packers. Tevin Coleman ran the ball over 20 times, which was a bit surprising given that he had been quiet for most of the second half. San Francisco does tend to ride the hot hand a bit, so it gets tricky picking out the successful DFS play. Raheem Mostert and Coleman are the two main backs getting looks, and this is a terrific matchup to go with. Recency bias will follow Coleman, and given the rest it may have actually helped him. I prefer Coleman to Mostert, but would certainly mix each into lineups this week. Green Bay has allowed the 10th most fantasy points per game to opposing running backs, and rank 23rd in DVOA. They rank 10th against the pass, which is still targetable with George Kittle, Deebo Samuel, and Emmanuel Sanders. The Packers were average at best against opposing tight ends this season, and the passing game was awfully quiet last week. Because they didn’t throw much, there isn’t much of a target share to go off from the playoffs, but Samuel continues touches and targets his way. He jumps slightly ahead of Sanders for me, but both are options on a two game slate of course.
The Packers have a pretty limited implied total, and it is the lowest of the weekend. San Francisco 49ers boast the second best pass defense in the league, and rank as the 11th best run defense. Seattle’s defense isn’t as imposing, so the Packers are going to be in for a tough matchup. Davante Adams is in a tough matchup, but the volume continues to be sky high. He had another double-digit target game, destroying the Seahawks secondary. Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams are worth a look, but after Dalvin Cook’s fantasy outing, I don’t feel good about it. San Francisco got healthy within the front seven, and it makes a big difference. Out of the four offenses this week, the Packers are my least favorite. On the road against the best defense remaining, I will look at Adams mainly.