Green Bay Packers vs. Dallas Cowboys NFL Player Props & Picks (1/14/24)
Get Green Bay Packers vs. Dallas Cowboys player prop picks & odds for their (1/14/24) matchup.
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Packers vs. Cowboys Player Prop Picks
One of the most classic non-divisional rivalries in NFL history, this year’s clash between Dallas and Green Bay will likely see both teams try to air it out early and often. Let’s see how that will affect the output of some key individuals on both squads.Jayden Reed Over 49.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Jordan Love isn’t the only key young player who broke out for the Green Bay passing offense this year. Jayden Reed, a second-round wideout from Michigan State, finished his rookie year strong. Of course, his ascent isn’t entirely separate from Love’s, and the concurrent growth of these two rising stars gives us quite the betting opportunity.
It’s arguable that the Dallas pass defense has become just a bit overrated, ranking 22nd in the NFL in EPA against the pass since week 12. They’ve also had an interesting home-road split, allowing slightly more passing yards per attempt in Dallas, perhaps due in part to the pass-friendly indoor setting. Similarly, the Packers don’t really have much of a split in air offense, as their home field advantage is more or less negated in this area due to the harsh Wisconsin environment.
With wideouts Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs both nursing injuries, Reed should be Love’s top target, even if one or both of those players fights through the pain and appears on Sunday. Over the past two weeks, Reed has set career highs with 89 and then 112 receiving yards, and was also over this number in the Packers’ previous outing. In a game where the Packers will likely be behind and forced to throw early and often to keep pace with the prolific Dallas offense, expect Reed to have a heavy workload once more.
Dak Prescott Over 280.5 Passing Yards (-115)
Few would have projected it before the season, but Dak Prescott is a veritable MVP candidate.
The Cowboys QB finished second among qualifiers in PFF’s passing grade, first in their big time throws metric, and second in QB passer rating. Perhaps most importantly for our purposes, however, he was third in the league in passing yards — averaging 265.6 per game.
Yes, that number is a bit below what we need for this bet to hit. But there’s a few reasons we should believe that this will be an exceptional outing for the Mississippi State alum. Firstly, there’s that terrible Packers pass defense, ranking 26th on the year in pass DVOA. The unit is trending in the wrong direction, especially after a puzzling trade that sent star cornerback Rasul Douglas out to Buffalo, where he has excelled.
Then there’s the game script. Dak’s season-long averages are pulled down by blowouts where the Cowboys ran the score up on lesser opponents and simply did not need him to produce for four quarters. The Cowboys should be able to move the ball, but as we discussed above, so should the Packers; this will be a fight up until the end, and Prescott will be forced to show what he can do and keep passing the football all day long.
Rashan Gary Over 0.25 Sacks (+154)
As bettors, we should always be looking for opportunities to invest in great players at low points in terms of productivity; usually, a slump doesn’t last forever for true stars. That’s exactly the situation for dynamic defensive lineman Rashan Gary, who has accumulated a very solid nine sacks on the season, but none in his past five games.
Over that period, he’s racked up 19 QB pressures, including a highly impressive eight in just one game against the Vikings. A performance like that not yielding even a half-sack is a true anomaly; even Defensive Player of the Year frontrunner Myles Garrett has accosted the quarterback that many times in just four of his outings this year. Gary is still a phenomenal talent, and due for some serious positive regression.
Dallas’s o-line has been solid this year, but far from dominant. This is especially true outside of Tyron Smith, who singlehandedly brings their grades up a good amount. As long as Green Bay doesn’t send Gary directly at Smith every snap, he should have some great chances to get to Prescott.
Anders Carlson Over 1.5 FGM (+130)
With no tremendous gaps between the red zone offenses and defenses on either side, let’s take the kicker with the higher odds. This play isn’t necessarily a lock, but is worth a half-unit play to capture some tremendous value.
Carlson hasn’t made all of his kicks, but has attempted two or more field goals in 10 straight games as Green Bay lacks a true red zone target. He’s tried at least two kicks in 13 of his past 14 outings, and hit two or more in five straight contests before slumping to 1 for 2 in classic Green Bay weather against the Bears. Let’s back him this week, as he’ll be indoors in Dallas, safe from the elements.
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