Get Packers vs. Broncos player prop picks & odds for the (10/22/23) matchup
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Packers vs. Broncos Player Prop Picks
The Denver Broncos (1-5) host the Green Bay Packers (2-3) this Sunday (10/22/23) at 4:25 pm ET in week 7 of the 2023 NFL season. This article analyzes the betting odds for Packers vs. Broncos player prop bets and recommends the best player prop bets in this matchup.
Aaron Jones over 20.5 receiving yards (-110 at BetMGM)
Free Aaron Jones!
In this case, we’re freeing him from the injury report, where he’s been locked up for most of the season. He’s expected to return this week just in time for an incredibly soft matchup against the Broncos’ defense. We can neither confirm nor deny that was on his mind when this happened in practice this week.
Aaron Jones appears to be in good spirits. pic.twitter.com/WKOBbPweq2
— Ryan Wood (@ByRyanWood) October 19, 2023
The Broncos have been comically bad on defense this season, and not just because of that one afternoon in Miami. Denver is dead last (or at best, bottom 3) in almost every statistical category defensively: points (32nd), yards (32nd), passing yards (30th), net passing yards per attempt (32nd), rushing yards (32nd), yards per carry (32nd), defensive DVOA (32nd), defensive EPA (32nd), rush defense DVOA (31st), rush defense EPA (30th), pass defense DVOA (32nd), pass defense EPA (32nd).
The only question, then, is where will the Packers rack up their yards and touchdowns in this game? Our favorite answer to that question is Jones’ receiving yards. Every single starting running back the Broncos have faced this season has gone over their receiving yards prop line.
To be fair, most players have gone over most of their prop lines against Denver this season, but few have been as consistent as the running backs going over on their receiving yards.
Jones is a supremely talented back who has only been held back by health and opportunity in his career. If he gets a normal workload in this game, which is what’s expected, then he should easily gain at least 21 receiving yards. In the one full game he played this season, week 1 against the Bears, he had 86 receiving yards. The Bears are one of only 2 teams that has allowed more receiving yards to running backs than the Broncos.
Take your pick on the over on any of Aaron Jones’ prop lines in this game, but our recommendation is the over on 20.5 receiving yards.
Luke Musgrave over 3.5 receptions (+105 at BetMGM)
Yet another area where the Broncos’ defense has struggled is defending tight ends. They are allowing the most yards per game and the 5th most receptions to opposing tight ends.
Luke Musgrave is a talented rookie tight end for the Packers with the ideal size/speed combination for a pass catching tight end in the modern NFL. While many rookie TEs struggle early on in their careers, Musgrave has gotten off to a good start. He has 6 catches in back-to-back games that he has started and finished (he left one game early in between with a concussion). He also led the team in catches in each of those games and had a team-high 27% target share in week 5.
Musgrave will only continue to get more involved in the offense as he gains experience and develops a chemistry with QB Jordan Love. Coming off the bye week, we expect his usage and production to only continue ascending, and he gets a great matchup this week to do just that.
Looking at his recent production, upward trajectory, and great matchup, getting this bet at better than even money is a great value.
Christian Watson longest reception over 22.5 yards (-110 at BetMGM)
Yeah, we’re just going to ignore the Broncos in this game and load up on Packers offensive playmakers.
Christian Watson is the one Packers player in this game for whom we would hesitate to take an over on a full-game prop because of his matchup with Denver’s elite CB Patrick Surtain II, one of the lone bright spots on their defense. However, Watson won’t be matched up with Surtain on every snap, and even when he is he has the chops to bust off a big play, which he showed on an explosive 77-yard play in week 5 against the Raiders.
Week 5 (2nd game back):
His 19.9 aDot is massive and he’s a playmaker
7 targets is great volume for Watson
Remember, he had the MOST fantasy points per route run last year
— Chris O’Brien (@17gamepace) October 18, 2023
In the only other game Watson has played this season, when he was on a limited snap count in week 4 against the Lions, Watson still managed to make a play over 22.5 yards on a 24-yard grab.
Watson is a big play waiting to happen, and Jordan Love will find a way to connect with him on at least 1 big passing play against this porous Broncos defense.