Green Bay Packers vs. Las Vegas Raiders Same Game Parlay (10/9/23)

Green Bay Packers vs. Las Vegas Raiders kicks off this Monday at 8:15pm EST in Las Vegas Nevada as a home game for the Raiders. The Packers are currently a +1 underdog and -102 on the moneyline while the total is set at 44.5. Expect a high scoring affair while the likes of Jordan Love, Jayden Reed, and Josh Jacobs have a monster game, giving value for a same game parlay in this Green Bay Packers vs. Las Vegas Raiders matchup.

Green Bay Packers vs. Las Vegas Raiders Same Game Parlay Picks

After skating by the skin of their teeth, the Green Bay Packers fell back to reality after a thrashing from the Detroit Lions on Thursday Night Football. Jordan Love continued to struggle when under pressure and their offensive line was routinely bullied by the Lions pass rush. As for the Raiders, their offense struggled to maintain scoring pace against the high-powered Chargers, falling to 1-3 on the season. Expect an offensive bounce back performance off the backs of their ground game with both units putting up points at a quick pace.

Leg 1: Over 44.5

Starting with the Packers, their biggest bugaboo has been their inability to limit opposing pressure. When Jordan Love is in a collapsing pocket, his production takes a nosedive. An already inaccurate quarterback, being forced to throw into crowded windows and racking up turnover worthy throws.

Lucky for Love and company the Raiders defense generates little to no pressure, ranking 29th in that regard. They also fail to bring down the quarterback, ranking 27th in Defensive Adjusted Sack Rate. With extra tie in a clean pocket, Love is prime for a bounce back game to shred this weak Raiders secondary.

As for how the Raiders will do their part to the over, they should have no issue with moving the ball down the field by feeding their star running back Josh Jacobs. Green Bay ranks 25th in Def Rush DVOA, 23rd in Def Rush Success Rate, and 27th in Def Rush EPA. Mirroring their troubles from last year, failing to stuff the gaps and allowing opposing running backs to hit the open field.

Leg 2: Jordan Love Over 234.5 Passing Yards

As mentioned in the first leg, Jordan Love should find himself with an abundance of clean pockets and extra time in the pocket. This is vital for the Packers offense in order to succeed as they collapse when under pressure. Not only does Love benefit from the extra time in the pocket, but this gives his receivers extra time in the open field to create separation.

JORDAN LOVE THROWS A DIME 🤯

(via @NFL)pic.twitter.com/xyJpn5HYfw

— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) September 29, 2023

Separation should come with ease as the Raiders secondary is abysmal in coverage. They rank 27th in Def Pass DVOA, 25th in Def Pass Success Rate, and 30th in Def Pass EPA. All expected as this unit bypassed the secondary in the offseason, continuing their struggles from last year as one of the worst coverage units in football.

Leg 3: Jayden Reed Over 35.5 Receiving Yards

Speaking of wideouts and creating separation, Jayden Reed is poised for a big game in the receiving department as he has quickly carved out a role as one of Jordan Love’s favorite targets. His target share has steadily increased, playing a mix of a downfield threat and open field playmaker.

Factor in Christian Watson getting healthier since his return from injury and the Raiders weak coverage will be forced into stretching thin. This opens up wider gaps for Reed to exploit, potentially increasing his number of targets and bringing a higher chance of clearing this mark.

Leg 4: Josh Jacobs 2+ Touchdowns

If the Raiders are going to do their part towards the over, then it is going to be off the back of their star running back Josh Jacobs. Not only is Jacobs there clear three down back, but he’s heavily featured in the red zone and now gets to go against a horrific Packers rush defense.

Green Bay currently ranks 25th in Def Rush DVOA, 23rd in Def Rush Success Rate, and 27th in Def Rush EPA. With an ability to constantly churn out yards and move the ball down the field, extra scoring attempts should be there for Jacobs to cash this leg. Especially with red zone struggles through the air, opting into the safer option of running Jacobs up the gut against a weak Packers front seven.

Same Game Parlay Card For Green Bay Packers vs. Las Vegas Raiders

Over 44.5
Jordan Love o234.5 Passing Yards
Jayden Reed Over 35.5 Receiving Yards
Josh Jacobs 2+ Touchdowns

Full SGP Odds: +1200 ($10 wins $120.00)

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