Green Bay Packers vs Miami Dolphins Preview (12/25/22): Betting Odds, Prediction, Depth Chart

It almost seems unfeasible to say out loud, but the Green Bay Packers have a realistic shot at making the playoffs. This pains me as a Lions fan, but the rest of the Packers schedule sets up nicely for a late run to squeak in. Almost unfathomable after how they have looked all season, but potentially can happen nonetheless. Will the Miami Dolphins ruin the Packers playoff hopes and dreams?

Green Bay Packers vs Miami Dolphins Betting Odds

Oddsmakers tend to think so, opening the Dolphins as a -4.5 favorite. Bettors have been in disagreement, taking the Packers down to as low as -3.5 in some shops. This comes on the back of Packers improvement of play as Aaron Rodgers gets more acclimated with his young weapons on the outside. After looking like one of the most discombobulated anemic units in football, Rodgers has this offense humming and back to being lethal through the air.

As for the total, points are expected to be scored in bunches as oddsmakers opened the total at 46.5. Bettors have been quick in agreement, taking the total up to as high as 49.5. We may be in for a heavy dose of the air raid as the Dolphins have been consistently one of the deadliest pass attacks in football this year while Rodgers is more than capable of maintaining scoring pace through the air.

Green Bay Packers vs Miami Dolphins Prediction

The Pick: Packers +4.5

It pains me to say it, but money over everything and I love the Packers chances of covering the spread. Let alone get the upset, as the Packers are a horrible matchup for the feisty Dolphins. Barring any last second drastic weather changes, we can expect this to be a shootout through the air as the heavy steam on the over suggests.

Aaron Rodgers and company have been clicking as Christian Watson has molded into a reliable target and Romeo Doubs returns from injury. This spells danger for a Miami defense that ranks well below average in Def Pass DVOA. Even with Miami shockingly being good at defending the run, they are still susceptible to getting burnt by one of the better catch backs in Aaron Jones.

Speaking of defending the run, Miami’s defense will have their hands full in containing the two headed dragon that Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon bring. Both have been a consistently productive force on the ground, ranking top-10 in Off Rush DVOA and are more than capable of getting to the Miami second level for decent sized gains.

Simply put, when this Green Bay offense is clicking then they are a handful to deal with. Miami fails to field the personnel to slow down the air attack, leaving the secondary on their heels for AJ Dillon or Aaron Jones to take advantage of.

Betting Trends

• Dolphins are 1-4 ATS in their last five games following a SU loss
• Packers are 13-6 ATS following a game where they gained over 350 total yards of offense

Key Injuries

Green Bay Packers Injuries: AJ Dillon (Q), 

Miami Dolphins Injuries: Jeff Wilson Jr (Q), River Cracraft (Q), Jerome Baker (Q)

Key Matchups

Can the Packers defense slow down the Miami pass attack?

Green Bay secondary vs Miami pass attack

It sounds silly to say, but the Packers defense is the key metric to watch for this wager. While they have been run over all season as one of the worst def rush units in football, they actually possess a great pass defense per Def Pass DVOA.

This is critical as Miami’s offense lives and dies through the air. That was made apparent when they went against the 49ers and Chargers, both defenses who took away the middle of the field and made Tua uncomfortable in the pocket.

Green Bay’s secondary is more than capable of doing the same, leaving Miami’s offense vulnerable for early outs.

Verdict

Take the Packers at +3.5 in what is a must win game for their playoff hopes with key advantages on both ends of the field.

Green Bay Packers Depth Chart

QB: Aaron Rodgers
RB1: Aaron Jones
RB2: AJ Dillon
LWR: Allen Lazard
RWR: Christian Watson
SWR: Samori Toure
TE1: Robert Tonyan

Miami Dolphins Depth Chart

QB: Tua Tagovailoa
RB1: Raheem Mostert
RB2: Jeff Wilson Jr
LWR: Jaylen Waddle
RWR: Tyreek Hill
SWR: Trent Sherfield
TE1: Mike Gesicki