Green Bay Packers vs. Minnesota Vikings kicks off this Sunday (12/31/23) at 8:20pm EST in Minneapolis Minnesota as a home game for the Vikings. Get Green Bay Packers vs. Minnesota Vikings predictions and best bets below as our best bet is on the Packers +7.5 as a valuable Wong Teaser piece.
Green Bay Packers vs. Minnesota Vikings Prediction & Best Bet
As if the injury luck could get any worse for the Minnesota Vikings, it was announced earlier this week that they will be shutting down star tight end TJ Hockenson for the rest of the season. He was injured along with Jordan Addison in their Week 16 game against the Detroit Lions, leaving their offense barren of pass catchers. That spelled doom for an offense led by third string quarterback Nick Mullens — a bumbling passer who needed as much help as he could get.
The identity change doesn’t stop with just TJ Hockenson as the Vikings are opting into the idea of starting rookie quarterback Jaren Hall for the second time this season. While it will certainly be tough for Hall to play much worse than Mullens, starting a rookie quarterback late in the year doesn’t exactly give their fans hope either. What Hall’s presence does do is give some value towards the Packers end as their defense should be in a position to succeed after dipping to 30th in Def DVOA.
Hall being under center helps out the Packers in more ways than one, easing the stress on their secondary who ranks 30th in Def Pass DVOA, 29th in Def Pass EPA, and 30th in Def Pass Success Rate. By playing Hall, it’s expected that the Vikings will opt into a more conservative offense that revolves around quick throws and a heavy dose of the run. While the Packers struggles are still expected to appear, the sheer thought of some early outs and stalled out drives will do wonders for their chances of covering with their offense getting extra possessions.
Extra possessions are exactly what the Packers will need against a stout Vikings defense that ranks top-10 in Def Pass and Rush DVOA. Under DC Brian Flores, the Vikings blitz and drop back eight at the heaviest rates in the NFL, a nightmare to deal with for a young quarterback. Luckily for the Packers, Jordan Love has made serious strides with his ability to handle pressure and is poised to shred an open middle of the field with a productive group of pass catchers. The Packers rank top-6 in Pass DVOA and Pass EPA.
Green Bay Packers vs. Minnesota Vikings Prediction & Best Bet: Packers +7.5 Wong Teaser Piece
Green Bay Packers vs. Minnesota Vikings Betting Odds
Even with the Vikings in flux at the quarterback position, oddsmakers have this as Minnesota’s game to lose as they opened the Vikings as a -3 favorite. That number has since been bet down with the Jaren Hall news as Minnesota is now a -1 favorite. That keeps the Packers in Wong Teaser territory, getting the ability to take them up to +7.5.
As for the total, oddsmakers believed points would be scored at a moderate rate as they opened the number at 44.5. Bettors have yet to take a firm stand on either side of the total, keeping the number the same since the opener. With plenty of variance on the Vikings end, as well as Jordan Love having to deal with this vaunted defense, the under is worth a wager should this hit 45.
Green Bay Packers vs. Minnesota Vikings Key Injuries
While the Vikings only have Jordan Addison listed as questionable for their skill players, the Packers injury report currently features Aaron Jones, Christian Watson, and Dontayvion Wicks listed as questionable as well.
Green Bay Packers vs. Minnesota Vikings Key Matchups
Can the Packers rushing duo find success against the Vikings front seven?
Packers Ground Game Vs. Vikings Front Seven
The Green Bay Packers running back room at full health is one of the more unique backfields in football. Aaron Jones is their elite speed dual type back while AJ Dillon bowls over smaller defenders as their bull back. They are both currently listed as questionable yet are expected to give it a go come kickoff.
This Aaron Jones stiff arm on Donte Jackson was disrespectful pic.twitter.com/BLIpCkRyit
— Kendell Hollowell (@KHollowell_) December 27, 2023
That bodes well against a regressing Vikings front seven, a unit that has dipped to 19th in Def Rush Success Rate. That means the Vikings are struggling to contain mid field rush production, conceding chunks at a time and giving opposing offenses friendlier distances to gain. Against a unique defense like the Vikings, any sort of edge goes a long way as Love tries to keep the offense ahead of the sticks.