Green Bay Packers vs. Minnesota Vikings Preview (9/11/22): Betting Odds, Prediction, Depth Chart

The Vikings host Aaron Rodgers and the Packers in one of the highlights of the Week 1 slate, a matchup that might answer a few burning early-season questions. Rodgers will try out his new receiving corps post-Davante Adams, while Kevin O’Connell gets a chance to immediately impress with a critical win over the NFC North favorite.

Let’s make predictions, take a look at the odds for Sunday’s matchup, and dive into the depth charts of these two rivals.

Green Bay Packers vs. Minnesota Vikings Betting Odds

This game has the tightest line of any on the Week 1 slate, as the Packers are narrow -120 favorites on the moneyline. Green Bay is favored by 1.5 points, with the over/under set at 48.5 points.

The Packers are the consensus NFC North favorites, but Green Bay is just 2-4 in Minnesota since 2016 and 5-7-1 over its last 13 games against the Vikings. The Packers’ Week 1 meltdown against the Saints last season might also be fresh in the minds of bettors.

Green Bay Packers vs. Minnesota Vikings Prediction

Prediction: Vikings Moneyline +102

I think the Packers hold onto the NFC North crown in 2021 – Aaron Rodgers is still just too good – but Kirk Cousins has proven he can beat this team. If the Vikings are going to split the season series against Green Bay, this is the one to win.

The Packers’ defense probably doesn’t have the full book on Kevin O’Connell yet, considering the Rams’ offense wasn’t entirely his creation. It’ll be exciting to see how O’Connell gets the most out of an offense with Justin Jefferson and a healthy Dalvin Cook, who didn’t play his best against Green Bay last season.

With injury concerns all over the Packers’ offense, the Vikings offer more value.

Betting Trends

Recent trends point to the over in this one. The over hit in each of the Packers’ final four games against NFC North opponents last season, as well as in 6 of their last 8 games overall. The over also hit in the Vikings’ last four games as underdogs in 2021, which isn’t a shock considering Minnesota has a strange tendency to play well against great teams but lose winnable games.

The last three meetings between Aaron Rodgers and Kirk Cousins have resulted in 50+ points. Even without Davante Adams, both of these offenses are well balanced to attack through the air and on the ground. Defense usually doesn’t win the day when these two teams meet – now the Vikings don’t even have a defensive head coach.

Key Injuries

Green Bay Packers Injuries: Left tackle David Bakhtiari said he’s on track to start Sunday after appearing in just one game last season. Right tackle Elgton Jenkins is questionable as he recovers from a torn ACL, as is tight end Robert Tonyan. Allen Lazard isn’t certain to play with an undisclosed injury, which would be a major blow to the Packers’ receiving corps. Matt LaFleur said he’s “hopeful” rookie receiver Christian Watson will play as he recovers from a knee injury.

Minnesota Vikings Injuries: The Vikings are heading into Week 1 at nearly full health among starters. Tight end Irv Smith Jr. is expected to play despite a thumb injury, and first-round cornerback Andrew Booth Jr. is listed as questionable with an ankle injury.

Key Matchups

Check out the key matchups and mismatches for Packers vs. Vikings below.

Vikings Pass Rush vs. Packers Offensive Line

If the Vikings are going to make a leap in 2021, they’ll need Danielle Hunter and Za’Darius Smith to be anchors of the defense. Finally healthy, Hunter and Smith have a combined five double-digit sack seasons to their name. Smith spent the last three seasons in Green Bay, so he might have some insight on how to beat the Packers’ blockers.

Green Bay’s offensive line isn’t as rock solid as it once was. The player to watch will be left tackle David Bakhtiari, the former all-pro who’s played just one game since a 2020 knee injury. Bakhtiari says he’s ready to start – can the Vikings take advantage of some rust?

Elgton Jenkins has been a standout guard but has moved over to right tackle and isn’t a lock to play as he battles back from last year’s torn ACL. Jenkins’ move to tackle leaves the interior line with some question marks, and his absence could make the right side as a whole a concern.

Dalvin Cook vs. Packers Run Defense

The Packers allowed 4.7 yards/carry last season, ahead of only the Chiefs and Steelers, but Dalvin Cook didn’t light up Green Bay’s defense either time these teams met.

Cook rushed for 86 yards and a touchdown in the Vikings’ Week 11 win, averaging 3.9 YPC, and he was limited to just 13 yards on 9 carries in Week 17 when Minnesota was buried at Lambeau Field without Kirk Cousins.

How much Kevin O’Connell’s offense will feature Cook is one of the questions going into this game, but he’ll undoubtedly be playing a significant role. If Cook can open this season with a bang and produce 100+ yards on the ground, the Vikings have an excellent chance of winning.

Green Bay Packers Depth Chart

QB: Aaron Rodgers
RB1: Aaron Jones
RB2: A.J. Dillon
LWR: Allen Lazard
RWR: Sammy Watkins
SWR: Randall Cobb
TE1: Robert Tonyan

Minnesota Vikings Depth Chart

QB: Kirk Cousins
RB1: Dalvin Cook
RB2: Alexander Mattison
RB3: Kene Nwangwu
LWR: Adam Thielen
RWR: K.J. Osborn
SWR: Justin Jefferson
TE1: Irv Smith Jr.