Green Bay Packers vs. Minnesota Vikings NFL Player Props & Picks (12/31/23)
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It’s a classic NFC North rivalry clash, and both the Green Bay Packers and Minnesota Vikings absolutely need this win to stay in the playoff hunt. Both teams have struggled of late, but can turn it on at any given moment. The stage is set for a New Year’s Eve classic in Minneapolis. With key contributors like Justin Jefferson and Jordan Love set to battle, let’s get into some Packers vs. Vikings player prop picks & odds for the (12/31/23) matchup.
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Green Bay Packers vs. Minnesota Vikings Player Prop Picks
The Packers will be tasked with attacking a very tough Vikings defense, while whoever starts at quarterback for Minnesota will have the opportunity to throw on a Green Bay pass defense that is positively bottoming out.
Ty Chandler Over 61.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
After an extremely low output of just 17 rushing yards last week, this is the perfect opportunity to buy low on a rising talent. That was against the Detroit Lions, who sport a very tough defensive front, ranking fourth in the NFL in DVOA against the run.
Just the week before, Chandler ran for an impressive total of 132 yards against the Bengals, whose run defense grades pretty similarly to the Packers. Green Bay’s defense is a dismal 25th in run defense DVOA, so Chandler’s production should be able to take a step up again.
His volume should be high with Jaren Hall taking over the starting job. The fifth-round rookie will be playing in just his third NFL game, having thrown 10 passes across a pair of appearances.
Hall looked sharp before exiting his first-ever start after suffering a concussion, but Kevin O’Connell will likely want to make things as easy for him as possible. That means establishing the run to take the pressure off of the air offense, so Chandler should have plenty of opportunities.
Against that soft Packers run defense, he will be able to do plenty with those carries. The Vikings offensive line grades 15th in offensive line yards, but the unit ranks just 29th in DVOA against the run. This discrepancy has a lot to do with the struggles of Alexander Mattison as a rusher, so if Chandler is able to run like at least an average back, he should be able to be a lot more productive.
Justin Jefferson Over 77.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
A young quarterback running an NFL offense for the first time probably isn’t going to routinely get through all of his progressions Often, the most obvious option is going to be the one who gets the lion’s share of the targets. With these Minnesota Vikings, that top receiver is going to be Justin Jefferson, especially with star T.J. Hockenson done for the year.
Jefferson has put up 84 and 141 yards in his past two outings after shaking off the rust in his first game back from injury, which was against an underrated Raiders pass defense. Those past two performances were both with Nick Mullens at quarterback; it’s hard to imagine that Hall, even in his debut, represents a significant step down, if any.
Hall has actually shown promise in his limited opportunities so far. After a great college career at BYU, in which he threw 51 touchdowns and just 11 picks over his two years as a starter, he completed eight of his first 10 NFL passes for 101 yards.
He should be more than able to deliver passes to Jefferson, who will be able to get wide open against this Packers pass defense. Not only are they missing Jaire Alexander, they rank 30th in DVOA against the pass, 29th in EPA, and 30th again in success rate allowed.
Jordan Love Over 0.5 Interceptions (-105)
Let’s give credit where it’s due. Jordan Love has been playing some great football in recent weeks. He’s had a passer rating above 100 in five of the past six games, and has only thrown one interception in that time. But all good things must come to an end- nobody can be flawless forever, especially not Jordan Love.
Across that same six-game stretch, Love has committed five turnover worthy plays, including four in just the last three games. His turnover luck has to turn around sometime; the regression is undoubtedly on the way. This must be the top of the market, so essentially even-money odds on this prop is phenomenal value.
Since the regression has to hit eventually, there’s no reason it shouldn’t be this weekend. The Minnesota pass defense is great, ranking seventh by DVOA, 12th by EPA and eighth by success rate.
The run defense is not any easier to deal with, so Green Bay will still turn to the air, especially once they fall behind as they should. With enough attempts, he should eventually turn the ball over, and cash this prop.
Anders Carlson Over 6.5 Kicking Points (-113)
All we need is a pair of field goals and one extra point for Carlson to go over this total. Assuming Green Bay isn’t kept out of the end zone for the whole game, the field goals will be the key, so let’s focus on that leg.
The Packers might struggle a bit to consistently finish drives, given some injuries to skill players in an offense that was already mediocre in the red zone. Green Bay has found the end zone to cap off just 51.8% of their trips inside the opponent’s 20, ranking 21st in the NFL.
Conversely, the Vikings defense has allowed 52.4% of red-zone drives to turn into touchdowns, good for 11th in the NFL. It’s a solid unit, and it should consistently force Carlson into the game to kick field goals. He’s hit two or more in each of the past four games, and has attempted that many in eight consecutive games. In this game, played in a dome, most kicks should be made, so a pair of attempts would likely be enough to clinch this prop.
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