Green Bay Packers vs. New Orleans Saints Matchup Preview (9/27/20): Betting Odds, Depth Charts, Live Stream (Watch Online)
The Saints make back-to-back primetime appearances, this time on Sunday Nigth Football. They will welcome Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. Despite the Saints coming off a loss to the Raiders, they are three-point favorites at home. Michael Thomas remains a question mark as he is listed as week-to-week and did miss Week 2. Green Bay has all their weapons healthy and dodged a hamstring injury with Davante Adams. New Orleans had major defensive issues and the offense looked flat outside of Alvin Kamara, we will see if this was a one week issue and they will patch it up against Green Bay. The Packers offense has been on a tear and this will be the toughest defense they face over the first three weeks of the season. Oddsmakers are expecting a lot of points with a 52 over/under set. For odds movement and full matchup history, visit the Green Bay Packers at New Orleans Saints Matchup Page.
Date: Sunday, September 27th, 2020
Time: 8:20 PM ET
Location: Mercedes-Benz Superdome
TV Coverage: NBC
Packers vs. Saints Live Stream
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Green Bay Packers: Davante Adams (P), Kenny Clark (Q), Randy Ramsey (Q), Josiah Deguara (Q), Corey Linsley (Q), Tyler Ervin (Q)
New Orleans Saints: Michael Thomas (Q), Chase Hansen (Q), Marcus Davenport (Q)
Green Bay Packers Analysis
The top offense in the league through two games is the Green Bay Packers. They have scored 42.5 points per game so far and while that was against the Vikings and Lions defense, New Orleans is coming off a game allowing 30+ to the Raiders. Week 1 and Week 2 were very different in terms of how the offense was run. They had 364 yards through the air in Week 1 and over 500 yards of offense, while Week 2 was all about the ground game with 559 yards. This team has rushed for 417 yards through two games at 6.2 yards per carry. Aaron Rodgers has 593 passing yards and six touchdowns. The plus defensive matchups will continue for this offense as they get the Saints this week and Atlanta the next. There were a lot of question marks about the receiving core over the offseason and they were criticized about the Jordan Love pick. While Allen Lazard and Marquez Valdes-Scantling are both over 100 yards and have a score, Aaron Jones is second and targets behind Davante Adams.
Aaron Jones has been running wild with a 34-234-3 line to start the season. He is averaging 17 attempts per game and has 14 targets. Jones is off to another strong start where he has 4 touchdowns. Jamaal Williams has been involved as a change of pace back and has had a lot of success as well. He has over 100 yards of offense. AJ Dillon and Tyler Ervin have not been involved yet. Defensively the Packers struggled against the run last season and teams against them have not had much of a chance to try and establish the run. However, they have allowed 5.2 yards per attempt on the ground and three touchdowns.
Green Bay Packers Depth Chart
New Orleans Saints Analysis
The first week without Michael Thomas was a rough one as the Saints lost to the Raiders by ten. However, not much of this can be put on the offense, although they only had seven points in the second half. The Saints defense struggled to defend the pass. Derek Carr threw for 284 yards and had three scores. New Orleans held Josh Jacobs to 88 yards on the ground and that was in 27 carries. The run defense has always been solid but there is some concern for the secondary right now. Darren Waller was a man amongst boys out there. They will face a good passing offense in Green Bay and will have to rebound otherwise it will be another crooked number. With Micahel Thomas out, it was Alvin Kamara who led the team in targets (9). He caught each pass for 95 yards. He also added 79 yards with two touchdowns on the ground. It wasn’t Emmanuel Sanders who filled the void either, as Tre’Quan Smith emerged with seven targets and a 5-86-0 line.
New Orleans is averaging 29 points per game but has allowed 28.5 through the first two weeks. Kamara continues to show he is the playmaker on this team sans Thomas. Kamara has four total touchdowns and over 200 yards of offense already. Latavius Murray has been keeping Kamara fresh on the ground with 18 rushing attempts through the first two weeks. There isn’t a reason to panic with Sanders just yet, even though he is behind Smith and Deonte Harris in yards, but the eight targets through two games aren’t WR2 type volume. And that might not have been expected given Kamara has seen big target numbers in his career. The receivers will face a pretty good secondary this week and if Thomas can’t suit up this is going to be a tougher matchup for Smith and Sanders. I would expect a ton of work for Kamara again.
New Orleans Saints Depth Chart
Betting Corner: NO -3
Spread: NO -3
Moneyline: GB -200 / NO +170
There is a lot of reactionary bets from the first two weeks in this one. Public money is heavy on the Packers. They are field goal dogs on the road. New Orleans is one of the tougher environments to play in but this year it is a bit different with no fans. The public is also high on the over as Green Bay has been scoring 42.5 points per game and the Saints are at 29. The Michael Thomas plays a part here because overall this offense did not look great on Monday Night at times. The Saints are only averaging 5.6 yards per play this season as Drew Brees certainly looks his age. There are a lot more reasons to back the Packers in comparison to recency bias.
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Daily Fantasy Picks
This game is not on the main slate for either of the three main sites, but you will have it as a showdown or part of some of the other smaller slates. Drew Brees hasn’t quite had a big fantasy game yet this season and isn’t pushing the ball downfield as much. Aaron Rodgers, I prefer slightly more just given how he looks this year and has his top wideout where Brees might be without Michael Thomas again. We saw Emmanuel Sanders have a lack of involvement in the loss to the Raiders despite Thomas missing. Tre’Quan Smith had a bigger game with 86 yards and five catches.
It is the running backs that I have the most interest in as Alvin Kamara and Aaron Jones both coming off big weeks. Their involvement in this offense is what I like this most, especially Kamara, given he becomes the main threat with Thomas off the field. Jones is just involved in an offense with Rodgers running the show and also has value in the passing game.