Get Green Bay Packers vs. New York Giants player prop picks & odds for the (12/11/23) matchup.
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Green Bay Packers vs. New York Giants Player Prop Picks
Green Bay Packers vs. New York Giants kicks off Monday at 8:15 p.m. EST in East Rutherford, New Jersey as a home game for the Giants. The Packers are currently a -6.5 favorite and -278 on the moneyline while the total is set at 37. Expect Jordan Love to continue to progress while A.J. Dillon and Saquon Barkley find the end zone, all giving value as player props for this Green Bay Packers vs. New York Giants matchup.
Jordan Love Over 223.5 Passing Yards
After a rough start to the year that raised serious question marks about the legitimacy of Jordan Love’s future as the Packers starting quarterback, Love has done a 180 and has started to put together a very impressive run. Granted it came against relatively weak competition, but his last game out against the Chiefs’ top five secondary was a warning sign that Love may be here to stay.
Love ended the contest throwing for 267 yards, three touchdowns and zero interceptions against a Chiefs secondary that ranks top-5 in Def Pass DVOA, EPA and Success Rate. He now faces a Giants defense that is a drastic step down in quality of coverage as well as weak in their attempts to get to the quarterback.
While it’s worth noting that the Giants have improved in coverage over the past few games, they still rank a lowly 26th in Def Pass Success Rate. Worse yet, their scheme is their own undoing as they rank second in Blitz Rate, 19th in Pressure Rate and 31st in Def Adjusted Sack Rate. That means they leave themselves exposed when they are unable to get to the quarterback, giving Love plenty of open field for him to hit his receivers in stride and have them gain yards after the catch.
Saquon Barkley Over 70.5 Rushing Yards
Even when the Packers know a heavy dose of the run is coming, it’s still hard for them to stop it as their rush defense struggles have continued for a majority of this season. That was an area of the defense the Packers front office neglected the past offseason, carrying over last year’s struggles into this one with a weak defensive front.
Their metrics back up that sentiment as their front seven currently ranks 23rd in Def Rush DVOA, 22nd in Def Rush Success Rate, 23rd in Def Rush EPA and 25th in Def Adjusted Line Yards. They are prone to getting pushed back from the snap, giving Saquon Barkley ample running lanes in the trenches for him to burst through.
The Giants advanced rush metrics don’t exactly grade out well either, but neither did the Chiefs and Isiah Pacheco just came off a 100+ yard rushing performance. They looked slow recognizing the run, already conceding a few yards before contact and that will prove to be detrimental against one of the best running backs in the league.
Saquon Barkley Anytime Touchdown
Not only is Saquon Barkley going to be heavily featured in the midfield, but also expect a heavy share inside the red zone. The Giants as a sizable underdog will need to capitalize on their scoring opportunities, being better off handing it to Saquon Barkley in order to avoid a potential turnover worthy throw off the arm of DeVito.
Let’s roll into the weekend with Tommy DeVito holding the safety with his eyes just long enough to dime up Saquon Barkley with a throw placed on his outside shoulder away from the coverage.
Getting Barkley involved as a vertical threat = nice new wrinkle for the #Giants offense. pic.twitter.com/Ph1H8YQBvw
— Dan Schneier (@DanSchneierNFL) December 1, 2023
Better yet, this is a potential sleepy spot for the Packers off of a huge win against the Kansas City Chiefs which means we may see an uptick in production from the Giants side. With New York in a position to find more success moving the ball down the field, that means more scoring opportunities which gives Saquon a higher chance of cashing this prop via on the ground or in a dump off.
A.J. Dillon Anytime Touchdown
It’s not exactly fun to take the two heaviest props in this market, but A.J. Dillon is also in a great position to score should Aaron Jones be ruled out again. The Packers have had no issue with abusing Dillon on the ground as the lead back in Jones’ absence, now getting the chance to bowl over a weak Giants front seven.
Especially if the Packers get out to a comfortable lead as the spread implies, potentially reverting to a more run heavy game script as they attempt to drain the clock. That plays into Dillon’s chances of punching one in, doing so against a defense that ranks 30th in Def Rush DVOA, 24th in Def Rush Success Rate, 28th in Def Rush EPA and 27th in Def Adjusted Line Yards.