Green Bay Packers vs. New York Giants kicks off Monday (12/11/23) at 8:15 p.m. EST in East Rutherford New Jersey as a home game for the Giants. Get Green Bay Packers vs. New York Giants predictions and best bets below as our best bet is on the Packers spread as a perfect Wong Teaser piece.
Green Bay Packers vs. New York Giants Prediction & Best Bet
Don’t look now, but Jordan Love is making serious strides as a top-tier quarterback. While it’s hard to ignore how rough he looked earlier this season, Love has been putting together some masterful performances of late. He beat the Kansas City Chiefs in his latest outing, throwing for 267 yards, three touchdowns and zero interceptions in a 27-19 win. His hot stretch puts the Packers in an intriguing spot against the lowly New York Giants, a game that is pegged as a major letdown spot.
Just because it is a letdown spot doesn’t mean that the Giants are better than the Packers. It just means the number is potentially inflated for its situation. That makes Green Bay a valuable Wong Teaser piece, getting to bypass the potential backdoor loss and get the Packers down to as low as -1 on the number. Especially with the Giants defense quietly making improvements as of late, a unit that is capable of slowing down Love should their second highest use of the blitz create pressure to the backfield.
Dealing with pressure is what gave Love struggles early in the year as he was grossly inaccurate with his tendency to throw off footed and front facing hips. Love has since made massive improvements with his pocket awareness, now hitting his receivers in stride with a defender in his face. His offensive line has made major improvements as they have gotten healthier, now ranking eighth in Adjusted Sack Rate.
On the other side of the ball, the Packers get a major benefit of being able to stack the box against Saquon Barkley as Tommy DeVito is a shaky passer at best. This is a major sigh of relief for Packers bettors as defending the run has been a struggle for them. Their front seven currently ranks 23rd in Def Rush DVOA, 22nd in Def Rush Success Rate and 23rd in Def Rush EPA. By being able to stack the box at a higher rate, that limits Barkley’s production at the line and dares DeVito to throw over the top of them.
Green Bay Packers vs. New York Giants Prediction & Best Bet: Packers -1 Wong Teaser Piece
Green Bay Packers vs. New York Giants Betting Odds
Oddsmakers have pegged this contest as the Packers game to lose by opening them as a -7 favorite. Bettors have leaned toward the idea of this being a trap spot, backing the Giants down to +6.5 in some shops. This is a sharp contrast from the lookahead line, originally opening the Packers as a +2.5 underdog.
As for the total, points are expected to be scored at a sluggish pace as oddsmakers opened the number at 37.5. Bettors believe that points will come at an even slower pace by betting the under down to the key number of 37. With Tommy DeVito being a wildcard under center, this is an immediate pass as he can hurt just as much as he can help the Giants offense.
Green Bay Packers vs. New York Giants Key Injuries
The Giants come into this contest fairly healthy while the Packers injury report currently has Jaire Alexander, Christian Watson, and Aaron Jones listed as questionable.
Green Bay Packers vs. New York Giants Key Matchups
Can AJ Dillon continue to find success on the ground as the Packers bull back?
AJ Dillon Vs. Giants Front Seven
It’s expected that Aaron Jones will miss another game due to injury, meaning AJ Dillon will have to take over starting duties once again as the Packers bull back. He comes off an impressive performance against the Chiefs front seven, rushing for 73 yards on 18 attempts for 4.1 yards per carry.
AJ Dillon went BEAST MODE on the 1st Drive
• 7 carries
• 30 yards
• 2 bodies
— IKE Packers Podcast (@IKE_Packers) December 4, 2023
He now gets another defense who is severely underwhelming in their efforts to stop the run. The Giants front seven ranks a lowly 30th in Def Rush DVOA, 24th in Def Rush Success Rate, 28th in Def Rush EPA, and 27th in Def Adjusted Line Yards. His production will be predicated on Love’s ability to punish the blitz, forcing their linebackers to stay in place and give Dillon the chance to hit the second level of the defense with less bodies in the trenches.