On Sunday (11/12/23), the Green Bay Packers travel to face the Pittsburgh Steelers. In this article, find the latest betting odds for Packers vs. Steelers along with our best bet which is the first half under 19 points.
Green Bay Packers vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Prediction
The Packers got a much needed win last week over the Los Angeles Rams, but it’s tough to put much stock into a win over Brett Rypien, who isn’t even still on the LA roster. Green Bay is now 3-5 this season and finds itself as 3.5-point road underdogs against a 5-3 Steelers team. Not only does Pittsburgh have a great home-field advantage, but it also has a rest edge after playing on Thursday Night Football last week.
I believe the Steelers will get the win, but I don’t see much value in them at the current number. Instead, I’ll go with the under. More specifically, I’ll take the first half under as both of these offenses have had horribly slow starts. The Packers (32nd) and Steelers (28th) are bottom-five scoring offenses in the first half and have combined for 11.4 points per game in the opening two quarters.
The Steelers’ offense hasn’t ascended the way I thought it might in Kenny Pickett’s sophomore season. They rank just 26th in overall EPA on that end. Najee Harris has been one of the least-efficient running backs in the NFL. And his lack of effectiveness has constantly put the Steelers behind the sticks in third-and-long situations.
Pittsburgh’s defense has been the driving force behind its success, and they have a great matchup here. Green Bay ranks 21st in overall offensive DVOA. They’re ill equipped to attack a middling Steelers run defense – they’re 25th in rushing DVOA. That will set Jordan Love up in obvious passing downs against the likes of T.J. Watt and Alex Highsmith.
I don’t see any reason why these teams wouldn’t continue to operate to their form for much of this season. Neither offense has had success in the first halves of games, and they’re both bottom five in EPA and success rate in the first half. Let’s bet on that continuing here with a first half under play good down to 17.5 points.
Green Bay Packers vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Prediction: First Half Under 19.5 Points
Green Bay Packers vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Best Odds
The spread for this game has bounced around as the Steelers were favored by 2.5 points at open. It jumped to 3.5 and has been bet back down to 3 at most books. Keep in mind when betting the spread that 3 is the most key number in NFL spreads. The over/under sits at 39 points with the first-half total found between 18.5 and 19.5.
Green Bay Packers vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Key Injuries
We’re into the time of year where every NFL team has a laundry list of injuries. The Packers and Steelers are no different. Green Bay could be without top receiver Christian Watson this week, which would be a blow to an already struggling offense. Pittsburgh was without safety Minkah Fitzpatrick last week, but he’s listed as questionable this week and could return.
Green Bay Packers vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Key Matchups
These certainly aren’t the same quality of rosters as when the Packers and Steelers met in Super Bowl XLV, but there are still some talented players to take note of. Let’s break down some of the key matchups that could determine the winner of this game.
Aaron Jones vs. Steelers’ Run Defense
It’s been a rough year for the Packers’ offense overall, and that extends to the run game where they rank 25th in DVOA. Aaron Jones has been in and out of the lineup with injuries, and he’s setting a career worst 3.8 YPC when active. He has forced just five missed tackles all season, and he simply seems to have lost a step.
This matchup is great on paper, but I’m not convinced he can turn things around. The Steelers rank 16th in run defense DVOA, but Jones hasn’t shown the ability to punish opposing defenses this year. A.J. Dillon hasn’t been much better, as he’s averaging a career worst 3.3 YPC. He did have a season-high 40 rushing yards last week.
George Pickens vs. Jaire Alexander
Whether it’s a deficiency in Kenny Pickett’s game or a function of Matt Canada’s bland play calling, the Steelers are completely over-reliant on out routes and back shoulder fades, which typically go to George Pickens. After two straight 100-yard games, Pickens has been held to a combined 21 receiving yards over the last two weeks.
The Steelers will be hoping to get Pickens back on track this week as he was in the midst of an encouraging sophomore breakout. However, the matchup doesn’t get much tougher than against former All Pro Jaire Alexander. These two will be going toe to toe all game, and it should make for some entertaining contested-catch situations.