Green Bay Packers vs. San Francisco 49ers NFL Player Props & Picks (1/20/24)
Get Packers vs. 49ers player prop picks & odds for their (1/20/24) matchup.
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Packers Vs. 49ers Player Prop Picks
With this year’s Divisional Round, we will be treated to another matchup between two of the league’s most timeless powers in the Green Bay Packers and the San Francisco 49ers. When these two teams meet, stars are always on full display, and this year’s clash is no exception. All eyes will be on productive running backs Christian McCaffrey and Aaron Jones, as well as rising young star passers Jordan Love and Brock Purdy, so let’s take a look at how these key players could perform and get Packers vs. 49ers player prop picks and odds for the (1/20/24) matchup.
Christian McCaffrey Over 130.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-115)
Yes, this number is big, but McCaffrey — the NFL’s leader in both rushing and scrimmage yardage — warrants such an eye-catching total. We’re going for the combined number since it’s hard to know whether he’ll make more of an impact through the air or on the ground, but it’s fairly evident that he’ll have a big day.
This Packers defense has consistently underachieved this season, ranking 26th in DVOA against both the pass and the rush. This could mean a total free-for-all for the versatile McCaffrey, who averaged 126.4 scrimmage yards per game during the regular season.
Given Green Bay’s defensive woes, Kyle Shanahan won’t need to be his most creative self to run the offense successfully in this game, and straightforward, efficient football for this team means leaning on McCaffrey.
If this does turn into a shootout, he will be heavily involved, and if the Niners do pull away, Shanahan has shown a willingness to use McCaffrey to drain clock late in games. If he was doing it against the Cardinals in the regular season, he’ll certainly be willing to use his star back to salt away a big playoff win.
Brock Purdy Under 0.5 Interceptions (-120)
This isn’t an article where you’re going to find unending praise for Purdy, but this is a pretty good situation for him to play safe, mistake-free football. Outside of one game against Baltimore where he threw four interceptions, Purdy only threw seven picks this year. Suffice it to say that this Green Bay pass defense isn’t on the same tier as Baltimore’s unit, which ranks first by DVOA, and picked off 18 passes compared to Green Bay’s seven.
The script should favor Purdy, who may not see all that much volume if the Niners do go up early. Even when he does throw, the risk is incredibly low; no quarterback in the NFL has a less challenging job than Purdy, as the Niners’ ridiculously talented receiving group is consistently open, and also comfortably led the NFL in yardage after the catch per reception.
Simply put, Purdy is rarely in a situation where he needs to take risks. The Ravens were good enough to make him do so over and over, but the Packers probably aren’t, especially on defense. Expect another nice statline without many tough throws involved for Mr. Irrelevant.
Jordan Love Over 0.5 Interceptions (-170)
On the other side of the coin, expect Purdy’s counterpart to turn the ball over at least once. Love has been playing some great football of late, it’s undeniable, but his statistical efficiency is completely unsustainable.
Over the past nine games, including the end of the regular season as well as the Cowboys game, Love has thrown 21 touchdowns and just one interception. During that time, he’s only committed seven turnover-worthy plays, which is outstanding but still paints the picture that regression is on the way. In a game where he’s set to have plenty of volume throwing into a good defense, expect some of that regression to show.
Aaron Jones Over 69.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
It’s not conventional to pick the rushing prop for the team expected to lose — and possibly lose big — but Jones is going to get touches out of necessity. The Niners are fourth in the league in DVOA against the pass, but just 15th against the run, so neutral downs and game situations should be pretty run-heavy for Green Bay.
Even against Dallas’s excellent run defense, Jones had a great game last weekend as the team continues to lean on him more and more. AJ Dillon has dealt with injuries and proven ineffective even when healthy, so Jones is more or less the entire Green Bay ground offense. He’s been over 110 rushing yards for four straight weeks now, dating back to the regular season; expect him to crack at least 70 in California this Saturday.
Jake Moody Over 3.5 PAT Made (+124)
As always, this special teams prop is about game script, and the script for this game has the Niners scoring plenty. It also doesn’t suggest that this one will be close enough that the “football math” will matter, forcing the Niners to go for two points after scoring. So, this is more or less just a bet on how many touchdowns the Niners will score, as Moody was a nearly-perfect 60 for 61 on PATs this year.
The Packers have a decent red zone defense — ranking 12th in terms of percentage of opponent red zone drives converted to touchdowns — but they haven’t played an offense quite like the Niners. San Francisco led the league in red zone efficiency, scoring touchdowns on 67.16% of those possessions this year. Their diversity of weapons makes it almost impossible to stop them, and Green Bay won’t come close to doing so.
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