Green Bay Packers vs. San Francisco 49ers SGP (1/20/24): Expert Same Game Parlay Picks For DraftKings & FanDuel
The Packers and 49ers are set to showdown on Saturday night in the first of two NFC Divisional Round games. Find same game parlay picks and predictions for what should be a high-scoring Divisional Round clash.
Packers Vs. 49ers Same Game Parlay Picks
While a playoff matchup between the Green Bay Packers and San Francisco 49ers has been a somewhat predictable fixture in many years, this year’s matchup comes as a surprise. Five weeks ago the Packers were long shots to make the playoffs, much less the divisional round. But, their rebuild has been an expedited one, so here they are. The 49ers, however, are a juggernaut who are exactly where they were supposed to be, and have every expectation of surviving to fight another week.
This game should be full of scoring, with two of the league’s best offenses squaring off. There are definitely some exploitable weaknesses in both defenses, even if the Niners have a clear advantage. Let’s take a look at some bets to pull together and take advantage of these trends.
Leg 1: Aaron Jones Anytime Touchdown (-110)
Last week, we discussed how Jones was undervalued due to his unusually-low scoring output this regular season. Against the Cowboys, he delivered in a huge way, scoring three times in a signature playoff performance. This time out, against another tough defense, Jones could be in for another nice performance, one that should involve him finding the end zone at least once.
Firstly, the Niners have a shockingly average red zone defense. They allow touchdowns on 54.55% of opponent drives inside the 20, a figure that ranks just 15th in the league. San Francisco’s run defense also isn’t as dominant as you might imagine, as they rank just 15th in DVOA, 26th by EPA, and 24th by success rate.
By contrast, the Niners’ pass defense ranks fourth, sixth, and seventh by those same metrics. The best way for Green Bay to move the ball in this game, and to finish drives, will be through the ground game. As AJ Dillon’s role has decreased due to a combination of injury and poor play, that almost always means Jones. At essentially even-money, his touchdown scorer prop is a great value add to our parlay.
Leg 2: 49ers Moneyline (-440)
This leg is juiced for a reason; the Niners should absolutely win this game. They’ve dominated the NFC, as three of the four losses they suffered before benching starters in week 18 were against AFC North opposition. They’ve also been great at home; their only two losses in San Francisco, again excluding that week 18 performance, were to the Bengals, during the brief period of time where Joe Burrow looked like himself and the team was clicking, and the Ravens, who nobody can touch.
The Niners are second in DVOA, compared to 13th for Green Bay. They’re third in both scoring offense and defense, while the Packers are 12th and 10th in those categories, respectively. Green Bay could definitely cover the spread, which is why we’re taking the safer route, but these odds are warranted; the Niners should win without breaking too much of a sweat.
Leg 3: Over 39.5 Points (-520)
Again, we’re going to mitigate risk with this leg by taking an alternate number, one that captures 40 and 41 — two numbers that are viewed by many as the two most significant numbers in totals betting for the NFL.
As the NFL’s top-ranked offense, the 49ers should have no issues scoring against a Green Bay defense that ranks 27th in DVOA. On the other side of the ball, the Packers have been phenomenal throwing the football in recent weeks- just look what they did to the Cowboys’ vaunted defense- and they should be able to run the ball against that relatively soft Niners run defense.
As an individual play, the total given out by most sportsbooks is solid enough value, but let’s get extra safe. This protects us against a scenario where the San Francisco defense steps up in a big spot and hampers the Packers offense. In that case, this number should still hit, as the Niners ground game should keep them scoring into the fourth quarter, likely pushing their team total over 30.
Leg 4: Jordan Love 225+ Passing Yards (-230)
This one largely comes down to game script, although investing in Love given his current form is not a bad bet at all. Last week, he and Green Bay dismantled a Dallas pass defense that ranked 7th in DVOA this season, and he’s cleared this number in three consecutive games dating back to the regular season.
More importantly, the Packers are rightful underdogs in this one. They should be able to compete, but they’ll be doing so from behind more likely than not. Considering their likely need for pace and big plays, expect them to go to the air frequently enough for Love to smash past this diminished alternate number.
Leg 5: Christian McCaffrey 80+ Rushing Yards (-225)
Again, we’re following a script where the Niners hold a lead for most of the contest. The Packers defense is terrible against both the pass and the run, so even on neutral downs and game situations, the Niners could easily lean on their star back to keep the football moving.
If they do pull away, that’s all the better for this number. San Francisco did not shy away from using McCaffrey to burn clock late in games in the regular season, and it’s unlikely that will change now. They sat him out of the regular season finale to rest up and get healthy, and then of course the team enjoyed a first-round bye as a result of their excellent play this year. CMC should be primed and ready to go, so expect him to put on a show this Saturday.
Same Game Parlay Card For Packers Vs. 49ers
Full Parlay Odds: +305
- Aaron Jones Anytime Touchdown (-110)
- 49ers Moneyline (-440)
- Over 39.5 Points (-520)
- Jordan Love 225+ Passing Yards (-230)
- Christian McCaffrey 80+ Rushing Yards (-225)
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