Buckle up for a conference matchup tonight between two of the top six teams in the east when the New York Knicks host the Miami Heat. Look at our Miami Heat vs. New York Knicks predictions, starting lineups, and preview, including each team’s updated injury report and current betting odds!
Miami Heat Vs. New York Knicks Prediction
The Miami Heat have been on fire, securing nine wins in their past ten games, with the only loss coming by five points to the Chicago Bulls; ironically, that was a game they started out winning by a score of 20-1 in the first quarter.
In that stretch, Miami has had the third-highest net rating (+9.0) and would have been undefeated if it didn’t let the Bulls come back from a near-20-point deficit. Further, their offense has been exceptional; they have a team shooting split of 49/40/87 in their past ten games.
Arguably, the most impressive aspect of the Heat’s recent play has been their performance on the road. Usually, when a team puts together nine wins in ten games, many of those are on their home floor; however, Miami has played seven road games in its past ten and boasts a 6-1 record.
Duncan Robinson has been an X-Factor for Miami during its successful ten-game stint; he has averaged roughly 17 points, four assists, and three rebounds on a 50/47/90 shooting split. Bam Adebayo has also been impressive, posting 23 points and 11 boards while playing exceptionally well on the defensive end of the floor.
When Robinson plays well, the Heat usually do, too; he spreads the floor for the Heat in both transition and the half-court, allowing players like Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo space to operate in isolation, whether to create for themselves or others. It’s a highly effective offense when everyone is clicking.
Meanwhile, the Knicks are 6-4 in their past ten games, with all six of those wins coming against teams that now have .500 records or worse. That’s a good sign for consistency but a bad sign for covering the spread as a favorite when playing against talented teams.
Further, they allow the eighth-highest opponent eFG% and 3PT% while shooting the sixth-lowest eFG% in the NBA over their past ten outings. In their last game against Minnesota, the Knicks recorded merely 16 assists, seven below their season average; they already rank 28th in assists per game as a team, so their lack of ball movement and half-court effectiveness are concerning.
Ultimately, all of this bodes well for the Heat’s chances to cover on the road, especially considering the Knicks are merely 3-2 on their home floor this season. Five points is a lot to give up to a team that has been hot, pun intended.
Assuming Robinson plays, we will play the Heat +5.
Miami Heat Vs. New York Knicks Prediction: Heat +5
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Miami Heat Vs. New York Knicks Best Odds
New York is a five-point home favorite against the Miami Heat on Friday night. The Knicks have Moneyline odds of -198 on DraftKings, while the Heat are +164 to secure an upset on the road. Currently, the point total rests at 212.5 points, with -115 odds on the Over and -105 odds on the Under.
Miami Heat Starting Lineup
New York Knicks Starting Lineup
Miami Heat Vs. New York Knicks Injuries
Miami will be without Dru Smith (knee), Tyler Herro (ankle), and R.J. Hampton (knee), while Bam Adebayo (hip) is listed as probable, and Duncan Robinson (thumb) is a game-time decision.
Meanwhile, Evan Fournier (ankle) has a questionable designation ahead of Friday’s matchup against Miami. Charlie Brown Jr. and Duane Washington Jr. secured two-way deals this week and are listed as day-to-day.
Miami Heat Vs. New York Knicks Key Matchups
Our key matchup for Friday night’s game between Miami and New York belongs to Bam Adebayo and Mitchell Robinson. See below if Robinson can slow down Adebayo and lead the Knicks to victory.
Bam Adebayo vs. Mitchell Robinson
Throughout his time in the NBA, Mitchell Robinson has been known for being a physical center who can use his length to pull down rebounds and deter shots from opposing big men; he’s currently fifth in the NBA in rebounds per game behind names like Nikola Jokic, Domantas Sabonis, Anthony Davis, and Rudy Gobert—pretty good company.
Robinson’s value often does not appear on the stat sheet, but people who watch Knicks games can see his importance to the team’s success. However, tonight, he will have a tough matchup against Bam Adebayo, who has played some of his best basketball over the past several weeks.
As a matter of fact, Adebayo has averaged 23 points, 11 rebounds, five assists, and just shy of three “stocks” (steals plus blocks) per game in his past nine outings. However, Adebayo tends not to play quite as well against Mitchell Robinson, though.
In his past ten games against Robinson, Bam has only posted 17 points, nine rebounds, and just over two assists per game; he averaged 37 minutes during that span, too, as opposed to the 34-35 minutes he has played so far this season.
Robinson is a hard matchup, evidenced by New York allowing the fewest rebounds, second-fewest assists, and ninth-fewest points to opposing centers in 2023-24. Ultimately, Bam will still put up some numbers to keep the Heat close, but Robinson has a slight advantage here. Slight Advantage: Mitchell Robinson