Miami Heat Vs. Los Angeles Lakers NBA Player Props & Picks (1/3/24)

One of the highlighted games on Wednesday night’s slate features a non-conference bout between the Miami Heat and the Los Angeles Lakers. Take a look at our Miami Heat vs. Los Angeles Lakers player props below for a detailed breakdown and analysis of our favorite picks!

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Miami Heat vs. Los Angeles Lakers Player Prop Picks

Our Miami Heat vs. Los Angeles Lakers player props picks feature Anthony Davis scoring fewer than 30 points per game at +100 odds and Bam Adebayo finishing the game without recording a block at +175 odds.

Anthony Davis Under 29.5 Points (+100)

Plus odds for Anthony Davis to score fewer than 30 points against one of the best interior defenders in the NBA? Sign us up!

Anthony Davis has averaged 25 points per game on 55.1% shooting from the field and 37.5% from behind the arc thus far in the 2023-24 campaign. Additionally, he has hit the Over on this line in five of his past nine games.

However, this matchup is horrible for Davis as he faces off against Bam Adebayo, a very physical and versatile defender. Adebayo and the rest of the Heat’s frontcourt allow the fewest points to opposing centers of any team in the NBA.

Davis has also failed to go over this line in four of his past five regular season games against Adebayo, proving that this is not a conducive matchup for AD to put up monstrous offensive stats.

As a whole, Miami has been solid defensively recently, ranking ninth in defensive rating in its past six games. In that span, the Heat have also held opponents to the seventh-lowest FG% of any team in the NBA.

Lastly, Miami allows the second-fewest second-chance points to opponents, which is advantageous for AD Under bettors because he averages the seventh-most offensive rebounds per game in the NBA this season.

Bam Adebayo Under 0.5 Blocks (+175)

Follow me for the sweat of your life. Betting on Bam Adebayo failing to record one block does not make much sense, but he has recently been sporadic in his defensive output (from a basic statistics standpoint).

Adebayo has failed to record at least one block in nine of his past 13 games, giving this bet a hit rate of 69.2% in that timeframe, which is noticeably more favorable than the implied probability of 36.4% given by the sportsbooks.

Further, the Lakers boast the 12th-lowest opponent block percentage, so this matchup isn’t necessarily a no-brainer for Adebayo to record a block, especially because he won’t be able to roam in the paint as AD’s primary defender. A block from Bam will more than likely have to come as the on-ball defender against Davis, which is always a challenge due to AD’s size (6-foot-10) and length (7-foot-6.)

In his career, Adebayo averages less than one block per game against Anthony Davis. With the NBA Defensive Player of the Year award likely out of reach, don’t expect Adebayo to be on a mission to hunt blocks. That has never been his game, anyway.

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