Miami Heat vs. Golden State Warriors NBA Player Props & Picks Tonight (12/28/23)

The Miami Heat (18-12) face the Golden State Warriors (15-15) this Thursday (12/28/23). Get Heat vs. Warriors player prop best bets below, including a search tool to optimize odds shopping.

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Miami Heat vs. Golden State Warriors Player Prop Picks

Which players will dominate in the Heat vs. Warriors game?

SGP (-149 FD): Tyler Herro 20+ Points & Bam Adebayo 15+ Points & Brandin Podziemski 1+ 3PM

Tyler Herro has cleared 20 points in 10/12 games this season. He faces a Warriors defense that is surrendering the 10th most open plus wide open three-point attempts per 100 possessions (via NBA.com). That bodes well for Herro considering 41.2 percent of his field goal attempts come from beyond the arc, where he owns a 42.7 3PT%. In addition, Golden State’s lackluster defensive backcourt has given up the 5th most points per game to point guards and the 9th most points per game to shooting guards. Therefore, he should thrive in both aspects of his combo guard role. 

Opposing centers also average the 9th most points per game against Golden State. Kevon Looney does not possess the defensive chops to completely neutralize Bam Adebayo, who has notched 15 points in every single game this season where he saw at least 15 minutes. Draymond Green’s absence is also a boon for Adebayo given Green’s elite defense. With Jimmy Butler out too, Adebayo and Herro will see a volume increase. 

Finally, Podziemski has made a three in 15/18 games where he played at least 15 minutes. Miami is allowing the 11th most open plus wide open three-point attempts per 100 possessions and the 7th largest catch-and-shoot three-point frequency. Plus, shooting guards average the 7th most made threes per game against them. Podziemski was a lights out shooter in college, and the rookie owns a 40.5 3PT% on three attempts per game to start his career. 

Based on the odds, this same game parlay needs to hit about 60 percent of the time for the bet to have a positive expected value, which makes it profitable in the long run. 

Bam Adebayo First Basket (+430 FD)

Adebayo is favored to win the tip-off against Kevon Looney, so Miami likely takes the first shot of the game. 

Adebayo has taken the first shot of the game in 40 percent of his starts, and he has taken Miami’s first shot in 55 percent of his starts. These Game and Team First FGA% marks both lead the NBA, so Adebayo’s first basket usage has been incredible. Butler’s absence removes a significant threat too. 

As stated above, the Warriors struggle to defend centers, so Adebayo has a favorable matchup here. 

He needs to hit the first basket (which includes free throws) roughly 19 percent of the time for the bet to be profitable in the long run. 

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Braxton has been covering the NBA for Lineups since the 2021-22 season. He's worked with multiple collegiate coaching staffs about analytics and scouting, which has allowed him to understand the game on a deeper level. Braxton is also a contributor at Thunderous Intentions and NBA Analysis Network.

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