Miami Heat vs. Golden State Warriors: Predictions, Starting Lineups (12/28/23)

The Miami Heat (18-12) face the Golden State Warriors (15-15) this Thursday (12/28/23). Get Heat vs. Warriors moneyline and spread odds, as well as predictions, starting lineups, injuries, and key matchups below.

Miami Heat vs. Golden State Warriors Prediction

Both teams need to combine for two made threes when the game clock strikes 8:59 for the bet to win.

The Warriors are allowing the 10th most open plus wide open three-point attempts per 100 possessions, as well as the 14th largest catch-and-shoot three-point frequency (via NBA.com). Meanwhile, the Heat are giving up the 11th most open plus wide open three-point attempts per 100 possessions and the 7th largest catch-and-shoot three-point frequency. In addition, both teams rank top 12 in terms of lowest allowed finishing at the rim frequency (per ShotQuality), so opponents are not attacking them at the rim. Essentially, both defenses are vulnerable here, but can the offenses take advantage?

Golden State owns the 4th largest three-point attempt rate because of their elite outside shooters. Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson remain dynamic threats from behind the arc, while rookie Brandin Podziemski has produced a 40.5 3PT% on three attempts per game. Jonathan Kuminga isn’t an efficient shooter, but he is still capable of making threes too.

Meanwhile, Miami only ranks 13th in three-point attempt rate but leads the NBA at an exceptional 39.5 3PT%. Duncan Robinson and Tyler Herro are clearing 42 percent from deep, while Jaime Jaquez Jr possesses a 37.9 3PT%. Plus, Kevin Love remains a capable shooter. They do not have the volume of Golden State, but they compensate with elite efficiency.

Overall, both defenses surrender plenty of clean looks, and both offenses can shoot at a high level.

Miami Heat vs. Golden State Warriors Prediction: 2 or More 3PM in the First 3 Minutes (-106 FD)

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Miami Heat vs. Golden State Warriors Best Odds

The Warriors are 5.5 point favorites in large part because Jimmy Butler is out. Miami must win here about 33 percent of the time for their +205 moneyline to hold a positive expected value, thus making it profitable in the long run. Golden State is currently 15th against the spread, while Miami is 18th.

Miami Heat Starting Lineup

PG: Tyler Herro
SG: Duncan Robinson
SF: Jaime Jaquez Jr
PF: Kevin Love
C: Bam Adebayo

Golden State Warriors Starting Lineup

PG: Stephen Curry
SG: Brandin Podziemski
SF: Klay Thompson
PF: Jonathan Kuminga
C: Kevon Looney

Miami Heat vs. Golden State Warriors Injuries

Jimmy Butler, Kyle Lowry, and Caleb Martin are all out, while Josh Richradson holds a doubtful tag. On the other side, Golden State will lack Draymond Green and Gary Payton II.

Miami Heat vs. Golden State Warriors Key Matchups

Klay Thompson Efficiency

After a tough November, Thompson has re-discovered his form this month by shooting a 41.1 3PT% on over ten attempts per game. Few players can get as hot from deep as Thompson, so he has the shooting chops to cash this bet by himself. If Thompson is on tonight, then it has an excellent chance of hitting. However, it’s far from a lost cause should Thompson struggle because there are plenty of shooters on the court.

Braxton has been covering the NBA for Lineups since the 2021-22 season. He's worked with multiple collegiate coaching staffs about analytics and scouting, which has allowed him to understand the game on a deeper level. Braxton is also a contributor at Thunderous Intentions and NBA Analysis Network.

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