Houston Astros vs Boston Red Sox 5/17/19: Starting Lineups, Matchup Preview, Betting Odds

Matchup Preview

We get a rematch of the ALCS from last postseason. Boston was won eight of their last ten games, and are all of a sudden within four games of the Rays for the AL Easy. Houston was won eight straight games, and are 9-1 in their last ten games. They are comfortably eight games up on a pedestrian AL West. This will be a test to see how far Boston has come, as most of their recent wins have been against average to below average teams.

Rick Porcello is 3-3 on the season with over a 5.00 strikeout. Gerrit Cole has been repeating last year’s success, as he has 86 strikeouts already and a 3.88 ERA. Porcello has been hit hard by Houston in his career, with over a 5.00 ERA in seven starts. Boston’s offense has been finally clicking, but they will face a tough task today.

This is a three game set, and at the moment the Sox do not have a schedule pitcher for tomorrow, but will face Corbin Martin. On Sunday, they do not have a starter scheduled either. Brad Peacock takes the hill for Houston. The Astros are averaging 5.5 runs this season, and coming off a Detroit series where they averaged eight runs. Boston is averaging six runs per game at Fenway Park this season, and now 5.3 on the season.

TV Section: Houston Astros vs. Boston Red Sox, 5/17/19 7:10, Fenway Park, Boston: Boston (NESN), Houston (SNSW) – Radio: Boston (WEEI 93.7 / 1490), Houston (KBME 790 AM 94.5 FM)

Astros Starting Lineup

  1. George Springer
  2. Alex Bregman
  3. Michael Brantley
  4. Carlos Correa
  5. Josh Reddick
  6. Yuli Gurriel
  7. Tyler White
  8. Robinson Chirinos
  9. Aledmys Diaz

houston astrosAstros Analysis

We look at Gerrit Cole, who has a 38.9% strikeout rate this season. Hitters have just a .198 xBA and .257 xwOBA off Cole this season, putting the Red Sox in a tough matchup. Cole remains using his heavy fastball 50% of the time, and his slider 23% of the time. His curve is also effective, but is used 17% of the time.

George Springer has been one of the hottest hitters in baseball. He has a 56% hard-contact rate and an average exit velocity of 92mph. Carlos Correa is the other bat with a 46% hard-contact rate and .393 xwOBA. Both possess power and speed, and make this lineup go. Alex Bregman is starting to get going, and he has a walk rate nearly over his strikeout rate. All three of these names are barreling over 10% of their batted balls.

Porcello has been okay against right-handed pitching, holding them to a .296 wOBA but .204 ISO. The flyball rate is at 45% which is where these bats can really launch off, especially in Fenway Park. The first four hitters of this lineup has over a .250 ISO against right-handed pitching. Even in the later half of the lineup, Aledmys Diaz has over a .204 ISO against righties and Robinson Chirinos has a .293 ISO off righties.

Red Sox Starting Lineup

  1. Andrew Benintendi
  2. Mookie Betts
  3. J.D. Martinez
  4. Mitch Moreland
  5. Xander Bogaerts
  6. Rafael Devers
  7. Michael Chavis
  8. Jackie Bradley Jr.
  9. Sandy Leon

boston redRed Sox Analysis

Rick Porcello has struggled this season. Hitters have a .460 xSLG off Porcello on the season, and a 41% hard-contact rate. Porcello’s sinker and fastball combined is being used over 50% of the time, which isn’t great. His off-speed stuff has been pedestrian this season, so it could be a long night against this offense.

Boston’s success has a lot to do with the young bats. Rafael Devers has a 53% hard-contact rate this season, and an average exit velocity of 92.7mph. His strikeout rate is below 20%, and he has a walk rate in the double-digits. Hitting to all fields, he has really evolved. Michael Chavis is the other name crushing since being called up. He has a .376 xwOBA and .510 xSLG. Chavis is barreling rate is sitting at 16%.

If the Red Sox can make good contact, they can generate some power. Cole has allowed a 40% flyball rate and 36% hard-contact rate, but this isn’t a shocker given his 39% strikeout rate. Boston is a really good high velocity fastball hitting team, which could help out against Cole. J.D. Martinez has a .578 wOBA and .518 ISO off this velocity fastball.

Astros vs Red Sox Betting Odds

Houston come in as road favorites at -139, putting the Red Sox as +129 underdogs. Boston has a 4.4 implied total, which is pretty high for facing Gerrit Cole. Houston sits with a 5.2 implied total. Both offenses are averaging over five runs this season, and don’t offer up much strikeouts. The over is 26-16-1 for Boston, where it is 21-23 for Houston. Over the last ten meetings between these two teams, the over is 8-2.

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Jason Guilbault has been writing and podcasting in the fantasy sports world for over five years. You can find his work at Daily Fantasy Cafe. He is an avid Tottenham fan, and follows the Boston sports teams. When he isn’t diving into stats, he is enjoying the outdoors or down at the local brewery.

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