Houston Astros vs. Philadelphia Phillies World Series Game 5 (11/3/22): Starting Lineups, Betting Odds, Prediction

The Astros forcefully answered back after the Phillies’ Game 3 power explosion, tossing a combined no-hitter in Game 4 and tying the series up at two. It was only the third no-hitter in postseason history. The Phillies will have to close this series out in Houston if they’re going to win a championship, but that task becomes much harder if they don’t bounce back with a win at home in Game 5.

Let’s take a look at starting lineups, betting odds, and predictions for Thursday night’s Game 3 at Citizens Bank Park.

Houston Astros vs. Philadelphia Phillies Betting Odds

The Astros are road favorites with Justin Verlander on the mound, entering at -155 on the moneyline. The over/under is set at 7.5 runs.

Houston’s status as a road favorite is entirely thanks to Verlander’s presence on the mound against what will be somewhat of a bullpen game for the Phillies. The Astros were even larger favorites when Verlander took the mound in Game 1, but he was hit hard in a start that added to his shaky World Series track record. With no ace on the mound for the Phillies this time, oddsmakers are still on the Astros.

Houston Astros vs. Philadelphia Phillies Picks & Prediction

This game seems like a tossup. The Phillies clearly have an advantage on their home field. They didn’t get anything going in Game 4, but when they start to build momentum at Citizens Bank Park, it can quickly turn into an avalanche.

Verlander has looked far from perfect this postseason, and it’s tough to envision the Phillies’ lineup getting shut down on consecutive nights. One area of strength for Houston: Verlander might be better on normal rest. Both of his rough starts in October came on extended rest, but he dominated the Yankees on a more traditional schedule.

Still, the postseason has proven the Verlander of the regular season is no guarantee. Expect a few runs from each side, but the Phillies’ bullpen has proven it can hold its own. I’ll take the resilient Phillies to bounce back.

Houston Astros Starting Lineup

2B J. Altuve R
SS J. Pena R
DH Y. Alvarez L
3B A. Bregman R
RF K. Tucker L
1B Y. Gurriel R
LF A. Diaz R
CF C. McCormick R
C M. Maldonado R

Houston Astros vs. Noah Syndergaard

Noah Syndergaard didn’t have his best season, though just staying healthy was a step in the right direction. Syndergaard posted a 3.94 ERA across 134.2 innings between the Angels and Phillies, with a 3.83 FIP and 1.26 WHIP. The former Mets standout has kept walks to a minimum and limited homers, but he’s been hit around with 9.2 hits per nine innings. In the postseason, Syndergaard has allowed 1 ER over 5.1 IP.

The Astros should only expect to see Syndergaard for about one turn through the lineup. After that, it’ll be onto bullpen with a few well-rested key arms. With an off day Friday, Rob Thomson will empty the shelf and throw everything at the Astros in hopes of retaking the series lead. That means plenty of Seranthony Dominguez, who didn’t pitch in Game 4, plus some more of David Robertson, Zach Eflin, and Jose Alvarado after their appearances Wednesday.

The Astros have struggled against this unit all series, aside from the rally Alvarado contributed to in Game 4. If Syndergaard can get through his 2-3 innings, it wouldn’t surprise me to see the Astros have a tough time against all of these weapons.

Philadelphia Phillies Starting Lineup

LF K. Schwarber L
1B R. Hoskins R
C J. Realmuto R
DH B. Harper L
RF N. Castellanos R
3B A. Bohm R
SS B. Stott L
2B J. Segura R
CF B. Marsh L

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Justin Verlander

Justin Verlander is set to win his third Cy Young award this month, but the success hasn’t translated to the postseason. The 39-year-old has allowed 12 earned runs on 19 hits over 15 IP in the postseason and was hit hard in Game 1. Verlander should benefit from pitching on normal rest, but at his age, his effectiveness is worth watching against a Phillies lineup that will be hungry for hits.

In the regular season, Verlander went 18-4 with a 1.75 ERA, 2.49 FIP, and an MLB-best 0.83 WHIP across 28 starts. He rarely allowed home runs and stayed true to that in Game 1 even as the Phillies got the best of him.

The Phillies need to open the floodgates like they did in Game 3 and ride the momentum of the crowd again. Verlander has proven he can be beaten, and the Phillies proved against him in Game 1 that they can win without the home run ball. They might have to – Verlander has done such a great job of limiting home runs this season that it’s wishful thinking to believe the power outburst of Game 3 can be replicated.

At the same time, Philadelphia’s well-balanced lineup is probably too talented to deliver a repeat of Game 4, when Cristian Javier and the bullpen allowed next to no hard contact.