Houston Astros vs Toronto Blue Jays (4/30/22) Starting Lineup, Betting Odds, Prediction

The Blue Jays are soaring. They’ve stolen a series from the Red Sox most recently and sit well above .500 in the early season. Toronto is neck-and-neck with New York for the AL East lead but both have built a decent margin over Tampa Bay, Boston, and Baltimore.

Meanwhile, Houston is in an unfamiliar spot. The Astros are no longer the bully of the AL West, as the Angels and Mariners made massive offseason moves that led to big-time early-season strides. Houston sits a couple of games back of those two but is stringing together a winning streak.

But do the ‘Stros have the firepower to compete with the AL’s most loaded roster?

Let’s dive into the starting lineups, betting odds, and my prediction for Saturday’s primetime game.

Houston Astros vs Toronto Blue Jays Giants Odds

Luis Garcia and Jose Berrios square off at the Rogers Centre, and I’m a little surprised the Jays are laying such a big number.

These are two very similar pitchers and two similar lineups. I don’t see why you would lay close to -150 with the Jays, who shouldn’t win this game 60% of the time.

But Houston is slacking. The team isn’t winning as many games and hasn’t looked as frisky as the Blue Jays. The Jays are likely a public team and could see overvalued odds throughout the season.

Is this one of those spots?

Houston Astros Starting Lineup

SS Jeremy Pena R
LF Michael Brantley L
3B Alex Bregman R
DH Yordan Alvarez L
1B Yuli Gurriel R
RF Kyle Tucker L
2B Niko Goodrum S
CF Chris McCormick R
C Martin Maldonado R

Houston Astros vs Jose Berrios

So, the Jays acquired Berrios from Minnesota to be the ace of an up-and-coming squad. He hasn’t been quite that, but he’s been a very effective starter.

He pitched to a 3.50 ERA and xFIP over the second half of 2022, winning some key games but being unable to drive the Blue Jays to the playoffs.

But things have been less rosy this year. He’s got an ERA near 5.00 and an xERA north of 7.00 through four starts. He’s managed a reasonable 18 ⅓ innings, but he has yet to toss a gem.

Berrios’ ground-ball rate is significantly down (27.8% from 42.8% last season) and his strikeout rate has also dipped (7.36 K/9 from 9.6 last season).

Not to mention his Savant page looks like an iceberg.

Image credit: Baseball Savant

There’s some stuff to figure out with Berrios, but I’m not panicking yet. He’s a talented fastball-curveball pitcher who has the engine to pitch 200 innings a year. Improvements will come.

Shouldn’t be hard for Berrios to bounce back. Houston is hitting to an uncharacteristic 91 wRC+ through the early part of the season. There are a few guys who are cooking still, but five of the guys in the regular nine-man lineup have posted an OPS+ south of 90.

Toronto Blue Jays Starting Lineup

CF George Springer R
SS Bo Bichette R
1B Vladimir Guerrero R
LF Lourdes Gurriel R
3B Matt Chapman R
RF Raimel Tapia L
DH Zack Collins L
C Alejandro Kirk R
2B Santiago Espinal R

Toronto Blue Jays vs Luis Garcia

I love Garcia. Not only does he have the most entertaining windup in baseball…

we are fascinated by luis garcia's windup pic.twitter.com/errLVPrnuJ

— Cut4 (@Cut4) October 23, 2021

But it works! He was a three-win player last year per fWAR, pitching north of 150 innings with normal and expected statistics south of 3.50. He struck out almost 10 batters per nine and walked less than three.

It’s been a slightly shaking start to the season for Garcia, but nothing to get overly concerned about. Projections still have him lowering his ERA and FIP down below 4.00. His strand rate is below average (64.8% in 2022, 77% career) and that should regress. I also expect his ground-ball rate to bounce up a bit from 30%.

But maybe not against the Blue Jays.

The Jays lineup just hits the ball so damn hard. The Jays rank second in MLB in both hard-hit rate (45.7%) and average exit velocity (90.8mph), trailing only the Yankees in both categories.

I don’t think the Jays lineup has reached its true potential yet, but it’s coming. This is a team that should be top five in every major statistical category come October.

Hopefully, it’s Vladimir Guerrero Jr. leading it. He’s been day-to-day recently with a small injury. But, in the games he has played, Vladdy has slashed .309/.380/.559, good for a 176 OPS+.

Houston Astros vs Toronto Blue Jays Pick & Prediction

My pick: Houston Astros ML (+120 at FoxBet)

All-in-all, I do believe the Astros show some value at plus-money.

First, because this line has already been pushed down from the +130 opener. Sharps are on the Astros side because they realize the value.

Second, Berrios generally gets more respect in the betting market even though Garcia is just as good.

Third, while the Blue Jays’ bats have been producing more runs, the two teams are quite similar in terms of expected statistics. To date, the Jays have posted a .337 xwOBA while the Astros have posted a .331 xwOBA.

It’s not often we get to bet the Astros as underdogs. But considering the team’s lackluster start and that they were somewhat gutted in the offseason, we may see some value on the team in this early going.

Take advantage of that now. I’d bet the Astros at +110 or better.