Houston Texans vs. Baltimore Ravens SGP (1/20/24): Expert Same Game Parlay Picks For DraftKings & FanDuel
The Baltimore Ravens take on the Houston Texans in the first game of the NFL Divisional Playoffs on Saturday (1/20/24) at 4:30 p.m. EST. The Ravens are 9.5-point favorites against the spread with the over/under set at 43.5 total points.
Texans vs. Ravens Same Game Parlay Picks
This article recommends a Texans vs. Ravens same game parlay featuring a spread pick and player props involving C.J. Stroud and Zay Flowers. We built our SGP on DraftKings, but we encourage you to always shop around for the best odds before you place any wagers. Let’s get to it.
Texans alternate spread +10.5 (-137)
Let’s start our same game parlay by tailing the best bet we recommended in our matchup preview – well, sort of. The spread in this game is Ravens -9.5, and we’re taking the Texans to cover that number, but for the purposes of this parlay we’re playing it a bit safer and moving that line across the key number of 10.
The Ravens should absolutely win this game, and there are plenty of reasons to expect them to win the game comfortably, possibly even by double digits. They finished the regular season with the best record, best point differential, best DVOA and 2nd best net EPA, even with most of their starters having resting for the last two weeks. They also have a significant home-field advantage, especially considering the Texans have played only two of their last nine games outdoors and C.J. Stroud has been much better indoors this season (108.3 passer rating over 10 games) than outdoors (85.1 rating over five games).
Winning by double digits in an NFL playoff game, however, is a difficult task even for the best team in the league. The Texans have exceeded expectations all season, and it’s not that difficult to expect them to do it again this week. The Ravens were just 1-3 against the spread when favored by 7 or more points this season, and Lamar Jackson still needs to show that he can play at his highest level in the playoffs.
Depending on your confidence in this pick, you could adjust this leg of the parlay to be even safer or more aggressive and change the total parlay odds accordingly. Either way, we suggest taking the Texans with some points in this game.
C.J. Stroud over 35.5 pass attempts (-105)
Our favorite player prop pick in this game – and possibly of the whole Divisional Round weekend – is the over on C.J. Stroud’s pass attempts, which we broke down in more detail in our Texans vs. Ravens player prop picks article. The short version of the argument here is that the Texans are likely to be in a negative game script that will require a high passing volume from Stroud.
The Ravens have arguably the best pass defense in the league (1st in DVOA and 2nd in EPA), but because they so frequently played with the lead (often a big lead), they also faced the second-most pass attempts per game this season (37.3). In their 11 wins in which the opposing QB played the whole game, they faced at least 36 pass attempts nine times and saw an average of 39.7 attempts. That includes the Texans’ Week 1 loss in which Stroud threw 44 passes, the second-most he has thrown all season.
Stroud averaged 37.2 pass attempts in the Texans’ five losses that he finished (excluding the Jets game that he left early with a concussion). He threw at least 36 passes in four of those games and in seven games overall this season. This number is simply way too low for Stroud this week, especially at close to even money.
After the first two legs, the full odds of our same game parlay are at +280.
Zay Flowers over 50.5 receiving yards (-105)
The biggest reason we like that Stroud pick so much is the expectation of a negative game script. For that to be true, obviously the Ravens need to score plenty of points, which is a pretty safe expectation for the 4th best offense by DVOA facing the 16th best defense by DVOA. That leads us to looking at a Ravens playmaker for our next pick, and we are focused on talented rookie WR Zay Flowers.
The Ravens should be looking to attack Houston’s defense through the air, as they were just 23rd in pass defense and in pass defense DVOA but they were 2nd in DVOA and 1st in success rate against the run. They allowed the 12th most receiving yards per game to opposing wide receivers (160.2) and they allowed at least 48 receiving yards to a wide receiver in all but one game this season (including last week).
Flowers has been Lamar Jackson’s favorite target all season, leading the team in both targets per game (6.75) and receptions per game (4.8). He averaged 53.6 yards per game and had at least 50 yards in 10 of his 16 games, including a 78-yard performance in his week 1 debut against the Texans.
Adding this third leg to our same game parlay brings the total odds to +625. We are satisfied with those odds for a 3-leg parlay, but here are the next options we would consider to add a fourth leg, along with the updated SGP odds after adding the fourth leg.
- Odell Beckham Jr. over 37.5 receiving yards (-115) – +1300
- Lamar Jackson over 227.5 passing yards (-115) – +1100
- Gus Edwards anytime touchdown (+105) – +1400
Same Game Parlay Card For Texans vs. Ravens
- Texans +10.5 (-137)
- C.J. Stroud over 35.5 pass attempts (-105)
- Zay Flowers over 50.5 receiving yards (-105)
Full SGP odds: +625 (a winning $10 bet pays out $72.50)
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