Houston Texans vs. Indianapolis Colts NFL First Touchdown: Expert Picks & Predictions (1/6/24)

Get Houston Texans vs. Indianapolis Colts First Touchdown picks & odds for the (01/06/24) matchup as well as a player prop search tool to optimize odds shopping for Saturday’s game.

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Houston Texans vs. Indianapolis Colts First Touchdown Picks

The goal of the First Touchdown prop is to identify which player will score the first touchdown of the game. Who will score the first touchdown in the Texans vs. Colts matchup?

Devin Singletary First Touchdown (+700 MGM)

The ground game has not exactly been consistent for the Houston Texans offense, mightily struggling to begin the year but finding its groove as of late after making a change at the running back position. This has resulted in Dameon Pierce being demoted while Devin Singletary has found immediate success as their new starting running back.

Singletary will find himself in a position to succeed once again as he takes on a Colts front seven who has struggled to stop opposing rush success. Heading into this contest, the Colts rank a lowly 24th in Def Rush DVOA, 27th in Def Rush Success Rate, 23rd in Def Rush EPA, and 22nd in Def Adjusted Line Yards.

Better yet for Singletary’s chances of cashing this prop, the Colts have actually done a modest job at limiting opposing pass attacks. Their secondary ranks 14th in Def Pass DVOA, 13th in Def Pass EPA, and 15th in Def Pass Success Rate, and 8th in Adjusted Sack Rate.

Devin Singletary with the #Texans longest run of the season – 24 yards – set up by post snap motion of Schultz & excellent crack block by Hutchinson on the S. pic.twitter.com/D9DiKMSZ1m

— Shaun Bijani (@ShaunBijani) January 1, 2024

That means pass success may be tough to come by once in scoring position, limiting rookie CJ Stroud and his hobbled group of pass catchers. Tank Dell is already out for the season while Noah Brown and Robert Woods are currently listed as questionable. Should one or both not be able to give it a go, Nico Collins may experience more double teams which limits him as well.

The Texans season-long rush metrics don’t exactly support this as they rank 30th in Rush DVOA, yet the turnaround from their early season struggles can not be overstated. Devin Singletary has strung together multiple dominant performances and is in a position to find the end zone against a weak Colts front seven.

Dalton Schultz First Touchdown (+1500 FD)

Should the Texans find success through the air instead, then tight end Dalton Schultz may be the early recipient for a touchdown. Especially should the previously mentioned Robert Woods or Noah Brown sit out, leaving big bodied Nico Collins to be doubled more often and opening up coverage for Schultz to exploit.

Even with the Texans offensive line grading out poorly, Houston has done a masterful job at masking their poor blocking by running a more quick out offense. That means more screens, cross routes, and quick curls against gaps in coverage, favoring the pass catching tight end who is already third in receiving touchdowns for the Texans with five so far this season.

The issue is that the Colts secondary has done a good job at limiting opposing pass success as previously mentioned, ranking above average across the board in DVOA, EPA, and Success Rate. Should Devin Singletary find success in the mid field early and often, then that may force the Colts to stack the box at a higher rate and open up passing lanes for Stroud and company to exploit.

Michael Pittman First Touchdown (+1200 FD)

While the Texans ground game finds itself be in a position to thrive, the Colts rush attack may stumble out of the gates. That is in large part of the Texans fielding one of the best run stopping front sevens in the NFL — a unit that ranks seventh in Def Rush DVOA, second in Def Rush Success Rate, sixth in Def Rush EPA, and second in Def Adjusted Line Yards.

The weakness of the Texans’ defense is that their young secondary, which has failed to compliment the front seven and has been prone to getting beat through the air. Their pass coverage metrics are drastically different from their defensive rush metrics, clocking in at a lowly 27th in Def Pass DVOA, 21st in Def Pass Success Rate, 23rd in Def Pass EPA, and 20th in Def Adjusted Sack Rate.

That puts lead receiver Michael Pittman in a position to cash this prop, taking advantage of a weak secondary who struggles in coverage. While touchdowns have come at a rarity for him this season, Pittman far outpaces the team in targets and receptions. Minshew will need to capitalize on all their scoring opportunities, being better off throwing to his best receiver when in the red zone.

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