Houston Texans vs. Indianapolis Colts NFL Player Props & Picks (1/6/24)
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Houston Texans vs. Indianapolis Colts Player Prop Picks
Houston Texans vs. Indianapolis Colts kicks off Saturday at 8:15 p.m. EST in Indianapolis as a home game for the Colts. The Texans are currently a -1 favorite and -118 on the moneyline while the total is set at 47.5. Expect Jonathan Taylor and C.J. Stroud to struggle while Michael Pittman and Devin Singletary carry their respective offenses, all giving value as player props for this Houston Texans vs. Indianapolis Colts matchup.
Jonathan Taylor Under 72.5 Rushing Yards
It’s been a roller coaster of a year for superstar running back Jonathan Taylor, originally opting out of the season until the Colts paid him. Since getting his desired contract, Taylor has had a lackluster year in his nine total games played. Taylor is averaging a lowly 61.4 yards per game and sitting in second on the team in total rushing yards behind Zach Moss.
Taylor is in a position to struggle once again against one of the best run stopping units in the league. Heading into this contest, the Houston Texans front seven ranks an impressive second in Def Rush DVOA, third in Def Rush EPA and first in Def Rush Success Rate. This is backed behind their front four, a defensive line that ranks second in Def Adjusted Line Yards.
Generating rush production has been an issue for the Colts all season long, clocking in at 19th in Rush Success Rate. That means Jonathan Taylor and Co. are failing to cut the distance to gain in half on early downs, forcing the Colts to try and convert through the air on later downs. With the Texans in a position to force them to do the same, expect Taylor’s carries and total yardage to decrease in this tough matchup.
Michael Pittman Over 75.5 Receiving Yards
Just because Jonathan Taylor and the Colts ground game is expected to struggle, doesn’t mean that Indianapolis will not find success elsewhere. While Houston’s front seven is a dominant run stopping unit, the Texans secondary has yet to give them support by severely lacking in coverage.
Michael Pittman Jr 🤧
pic.twitter.com/3dVrvZ7snX— PFF (@PFF) October 8, 2023
Heading into this contest, the Houston Texans secondary ranks a lowly 23rd in Def Pass DVOA, 21st in Def Pass EPA and 18th in Def Pass Success Rate. That gives Michael Pittman a good chance of bouncing back after being held to just 46 yards by an improved Raiders secondary, having an advantage anytime he gets singular coverage.
Devin Singletary Over 63.5 Rushing Yards
Much like the Colts having a big advantage throwing over the top of the Texans secondary, the Texans will have a big edge by establishing their ground game. That hasn’t been exactly a strength for the Texans, ranking 30th in Rush DVOA, but making the switch to Devin Singletary for Dameon Pierce has given them a huge boost in rush production as of late.
Devin Singletary has nearly doubled Dameon Pierce in yards per carry and yards per game, now getting the chance to succeed again against a weak Colts front seven. The Colts come into this game ranked 24th in Def Rush DVOA, 26th in Def Rush Success Rate, 24th in Def Rush EPA and 22nd in Def Adjusted Line Yards.
They routinely allow opposing running backs to churn out yards at a time when they hit the trenches, allowing them to maintain a conservative offense with friendlier distances to gain on later downs. With C.J. Stroud expected to stumble a bit against an above average Colts secondary, expect the Texans to lean more on their ground game to help command defensive attention and open up passing lanes on the outside.
C.J. Stroud Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
With Devin Singletary expected to carry the offense, that means Stroud may see his pass attempts diminish. Especially since it’s against an above average secondary per Def Pass metrics with the Colts checking in at 14th in Def Pass DVOA, 14th in Def Pass EPA and 15th in Def Pass Success Rate.
A big reason for why the Colts are good at limiting opposing pass success is because of their ability to get to the quarterback, boasting a defensive line that ranks ninth in Def Adjusted Sack Rate. That’s a sizable edge against a Texans offensive line who ranks 18th in Off Adjusted Sack Rate, indicating that Stroud may struggle against the Colts pressure. In a must win game, expect the Texans to lean on the ground to maximize their scoring opportunities when in the red zone.
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