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The New York Jets (4-8) play host to the Houston Texans (7-5) on Sunday (12/10/23) at 1 p.m. EST. The Texans are the betting favorites on the road at -3.5 against the spread, and the game is expected to be an ugly, defensive battle with an over/under set at just 33.5 total points.
C.J. Stroud under 218.5 passing yards (-114 at FanDuel)
At first we were shocked to see this prop line so low. It almost seemed disrespectful to C.J. Stroud, who is putting together arguably the greatest rookie season for a QB in NFL history. It was confounding that oddsmakers seemed to think the loss of Tank Dell and the tough matchup with the Jets’ defense were such big factors that Stroud would finish roughly 80 yards below his league-leading average of 295.0 passing yards per game.
Then we checked the weather report, and it all made a lot more sense.
A major storm system will impact as many as 6 #NFL games from the Missouri Valley across the Ohio Valley and into the Northeast on Sunday. Stay tuned to the latest at: https://t.co/J7lRQzsnP5#sportsbetting pic.twitter.com/rBlLhTYDoI
— BettorWeather (@BettorWeather) December 5, 2023
Not specified in that tweet is that East Rutherford, NJ is expected to get heavy rainfall and 10-15 mph wind with gusts up to 30 mph. That is going to have a significant impact on this game, particularly Stroud’s deep passing attack, which has been his bread-and-butter this season. When you also consider that TE Dalton Schultz is out and WR Noah Brown is questionable, there are several factors lining up to forecast a down game for Stroud.
To be clear, the weather is really the only reason we are down on Stroud in this game. Under normal circumstances, he could overcome the injured weapons and exceed 218 passing yards even on the road in a difficult matchup. But nobody can defeat mother nature.
It’s worth monitoring the weather and waiting until closer to kickoff before placing any bets on this game. If the forecast improves and you can get some bets in before the sportsbooks update their odds, then you can find some value that way. On the other hand, if the forecast does not improve then this line is likely to decline even further. It has already dropped a lot from the opening line of 250.0, which was a more normal line for Stroud in this game.
Zach Wilson under 186.5 passing yards (-115 at BetMGM)
As long as we’re betting on the bad weather depressing all the offense in this game, we might as well take the under on the QB as well. It’s not like Zach Wilson couldn’t go under this number under normal circumstances, especially if he just ends up getting benched again, which is a real possibility.
If this weren’t a potential weather game, we would probably not be playing this line either way. As bad as he’s been, Wilson does have 186 or more passing yards in the last six games he started and finished. As such, we would not bet the under on such a low number, and it would be gross to bet the over on a Zach Wilson passing yards prop.
Again, you can bet this now and take the risk that the weather forecast could change, knowing that there is still a chance the under could hit. Or you can wait until closer to kickoff and risk losing your chance to bet it if the line drops even lower.
Garrett Wilson under 57.5 receiving yards (-114 at FanDuel)
The flip side of fading the passing attacks would have been taking some overs on the rushing yards in this game. However, there were no props available for Jets running backs as of this writing because of the uncertainty surrounding Breece Hall’s ankle injury.
On the Texans’ side, it’s coin flip guessing whether Dameon Pierce or Devin Singletary is the best bet in this game. Those lines are both in the mid-30s as of this writing, and both should be attainable in a weather game with a heavy ground attack. But they also have a tough matchup against the Jets’ solid run defense.
Instead, let’s just take another under in the passing game by fading Garrett Wilson in this game. The Jets’ disaster of a QB situation has held Garrett Wilson under this number in each of his last three games, and that was without any weather to worry about. That could easily happen again in this game if the weather ends up being OK. But if Zach Wilson or Trevor Siemian or whoever else might throw passes for the Jets this week also has to deal with wind and rain, there is no way they’re doing anything positive through the air.