The Houston Texans travel north to face the New York Jets in an AFC showdown on Sunday (12/10/23). In this article, find the latest betting odds for the game as well as a full matchup preview. In addition, find our Texans Vs. Jets best bet which is the Jets +3.5.
Houston Texans vs. New York Jets Prediction
The Jets are back to Zach Wilson under center after Tim Boyle started two games, and Boyle has since been released. There’s not a marked difference between the two quarterbacks, and the Jets rank dead last in offensive DVOA and EPA this season as they have scored just 14.3 points per game, the third-fewest in the NFL. Regardless of who’s under center, it’s been tough for even Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson, two highly talented players, to gain traction in this offense.
However, New York’s defense remains one of the league’s best as the Jets are third in defensive DVOA and fifth in EPA. That makes for a fascinating matchup this week against rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud, who will be facing arguably the toughest test of his young career. The weather conditions won’t help Stroud as heavy wind and rain are expected on Sunday. Stroud’s passing yardage prop is a measly 217 yards.
The Texans suffered a gutting injury last week with rookie wide receiver Tank Dell’s season-ending broken fibula. Dell had been lighting up the league with 709 receiving yards and seven touchdowns, and his injury is a huge blow to an offense that ranks fourth in passing DVOA. The onus will be on Nico Collins to step up in a larger role, and the Michigan product is coming off a career best seven catches for 168 yards and two touchdowns.
The dichotomy between the Jets’ offensive and defensive production this season has led to a ton of low scoring games. But it’s tough to play the under here as it’s crashed all the way to 33 points. However, with such a low total in this game, the Jets arguably carry some value as a home underdog. I personally passed on this game from a betting standpoint as there are better spots on the board this week, but if I had to make a play, it would be the Jets +3.5.
Houston Texans vs. New York Jets Prediction: Jets +3.5
Houston Texans vs. New York Jets Best Odds
With wind and rain in the forecast in New Jersey, the total for this game has dropped from 38.5 points all the way down to 33 points. Pay attention to the weather reports on Sunday morning before making a play on the total, as that will have significant bearing on the outcome. With a spread of 3.5 points favoring the road Texans, the numbers here lead to an implied final score of around 18-15 in favor of Houston.
Houston Texans vs. New York Jets Key Injuries
In addition to Tank Dell’s unfortunate season-ending injury, the Texans are slated to be without tight end Dalton Schultz for the second straight week. Noah Brown is also listed as questionable with a knee injury. On the Jets’ side, the team is mostly healthy, with Breece Hall expected to play through a lingering ankle injury that has him listed as questionable.
Houston Texans vs. New York Jets Key Matchups
The Texans are on the fringe of the playoff race in the AFC, but they still have the opportunity to steal the AFC North. A win here is necessary to do so, but their vaunted young offense has a difficult task against one of the best defenses in the NFL.
Nico Collins vs. Sauce Gardner
With Tank Dell out for the game and the Texans needing a spark, Nico Collins came through in a massive way to help his team secure a crucial win over the Broncos. With an otherworldly 42.9% target share and 56.9% air yard share, Collins was a majority of the passing offense and will continue to play a massive role moving forward.
The Jets will counter Collins with second-year cornerback Sauce Gardner, one of the best in the NFL at his position. Gardner is PFF’s third-highest graded cornerback in coverage this season, and he has allowed just one touchdown in coverage all year despite often facing the opposing team’s best wide receiver. His ability to hold Collins in check will be crucial on Sunday.
Houston Texans’ Offensive Line vs. New York Jets’ Defensive Line
While Houston’s offense has certainly been impressive, one hindrance to C.J. Stroud’s campaign has been an offensive line that ranks outside the top 20 in adjusted sack rate allowed. Stroud’s metrics take a dive when he’s under pressure this season, as his yards per attempt falls from 9.7 to 5.6 and his turnover-worthy play rate jumps from 1.6% to 4.5%, per PFF.
The Jets have one of the best pass-rushing units in the NFL as they blitz at the league’s lowest rate but generate the second-highest rate of pressure. New York’s defensive line is deep and talented, and Jermaine Johnson, Bryce Huff, and Quinton Jefferson all have 6+ sacks this season. Quinnen Williams has also been a terror on the interior with 42 pressures.