The Texans are a shell of themselves, with C.J. Stroud, Will Anderson Jr., and their top two receivers set to miss Sunday’s game against the Titans. Which under-the-radar players could benefit? Here’s a look at some of the best player prop bets for this AFC South battle.
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Houston Texans vs. Tennessee Titans Team Player Prop Picks
Devin Singletary Over 48.5 Rushing Yards (-114, FanDuel)
Devin Singletary seems to have overtaken Dameon Pierce as Bobby Slowik’s most trustworthy running back, but both backs should be fed heavily on Sunday. Yes, the Titans might have a sense of what’s coming, but Davis Mills passing to a depleted group of pass catchers is still nowhere near the best option for the Texans’ offense. Even if his efficiency isn’t what it’s been lately, Singletary should receive enough of a workload to hit 49+ rushing yards.
Singletary has averaged 4.5+ yards per carry in four of his last five games, including back-to-back efforts north of 110 yards in November. The Texans’ offense had a sluggish day against the Jets last weekend, but Singletary out-touched Pierce 13-4 on the ground and managed to turn his 13 carries into 65 yards. The Titans’ run defense has been strong this season, but the Dolphins showed on Monday that success can be found with a two-headed backfield.
DeAndre Hopkins Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+195, FanDuel)
DeAndre Hopkins has scored six touchdowns in Levis’ seven games as the Titans’ starter. With Levis’ confidence high after the comeback win over Miami, take the +195 line and run. Hopkins has been targeted 12+ times in back-to-back games, racking up just under 200 yards in that span, and it’s clear Levis doesn’t have an established connection with any other receiver quite like he does with the potential Hall of Famer.
In a game that should allow the Titans’ offense to put together some scoring drives – Tennessee has a strong chance of getting a short field or two with the Texans’ offense out of sorts – look for Levis to target Hopkins in the red zone when Derrick Henry isn’t running it in.
Davis Mills Under 198.5 Passing Yards (-115, DraftKings)
Mills is a fine backup, but he’s walking into a potentially disastrous situation on Sunday. Nico Collins and Tank Dell won’t be on the field, and the Texans’ offensive line has taken a bit of a step back in recent weeks. With Houston’s offense expected to be run-based, at least early on, it could be tough for Mills to top 198 yards through the air.
Mills averaged 207.9 passing yards per game last season, and his 6.5 yards per attempt were 28th among 33 qualified quarterbacks. You could say he wasn’t in a great situation, but with the receivers out on Sunday, the only major upgrade from last season is the play-caller. As we saw in the Texans’ loss to the Jets, that’s not enough.
Even against what’s been a soft Titans pass defense at times, it’s tough to envision Mills and the Texans passing game finding sustained success on Sunday.
Chigoziem Okonkwo 40+ Receiving Yards (+130, FanDuel)
While Hopkins is easily Levis’ top target, the rookie has found a connection with TE Chigoziem Okonkwo. Okonkwo has posted 45+ yards in each of his last three games, hauling in 71 percent of his targets and averaging an efficient 12.8 yards per catch.
The Texans have allowed the fourth-highest yardage total to tight ends this season, giving up 800 yards though 13 games, and there isn’t any reason for Levis to abandon his tight end unless or until the game is out of reach and the running game takes over. At +130, it’s worth giving consideration to 40+ receiving yards for Okonkwo rather than settling for the over/under.