Houston vs Arizona: Betting Odds, Picks, and Predictions (3/24/22)

Houston vs Arizona Betting Odds

Houston has looked so good. Despite losing two of their four best players back in December, the Cougars have revitalized themselves and are ready to make another Final Four run. There aren’t many coaches that can recover from injuries like that, but Kelvin Sampson is the real deal.

Meanwhile, Arizona is off an overtime scare against TCU. Bennedict Mathurin saved the Wildcats in that game, and Tommy Lloyd’s squad survived and advanced.

So, is Arizona vulnerable? Is Houston trending up enough to take advantage of that?

This spread is hovering around Arizona -2. However, KenPom makes the spread Houston -1.

Is there value with the Cougars in this spot?

Houston Cougars Odds

Against UAB, Houston shot 10-for-21 from 3.

Against Illinois, Houston shot 51.5% from 2, grabbed 15 offensive rebounds, blocked six shots, and recorded eight steals.

Houston can beat you in every which way.

The Cougars are lengthy, physical, and tough. They’re also opportunistic. A gritty team doesn’t rely on any single avenue to beat teams – Houston just survives and advances.

Houston is a defensive-minded team, however. Everything hovers around contesting shots. The Cougars are third nationally in effective field goal percentage allowed (43.6%) and are exceptionally good at running teams off the 3-point line (despite allowing a lot of 3-point attempts).

And on the interior, Houston is 13th in efficiency at defending shots at the rim and first in efficiency at defending post-up opportunities.

Good luck scoring against this team.

Offensively, the Cougars live on first- and second-chance points. The Cougars don’t turn the ball over, ranking top-70 nationally in offensive turnover rate. And the Cougars crash the glass, ranking third in offensive rebounding rate.

Houston does a lot of the same things TCU does. Given what Arizona just went through with the Horned Frogs, that bodes well for the Cougars.

Arizona Wildcats Odds

Bennedict Mathurin is arguably the best player in the nation. With all the teams eliminated, he’s probably the best player left in the tournament.

He dropped 30 points, grabbed eight boards, and dished out four assists in the win over TCU. It was a dominant performance filled with plenty of clutch shots.

https://twitter.com/mrmatthewcfb/status/1505760260610473989?s=21

As well as one of the best in-game dunks of all time.

BENNEDICT MATHURIN WITH THE DUNK OF THE TOURNAMENT 😱

(via @MarchMadnessMBB)pic.twitter.com/Wt96Y2v1PH

— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) March 21, 2022

And some smart off-the-ball movement.

Bennedict Mathurin with the beautiful back door cut.

No. 1 #Arizona Wildcats | No. 9 #TCU Horned Frogs#MarchMadness #CollegeBasketball pic.twitter.com/STTFpXhWZM

— BasketballBuzz.ca 🇨🇦🏀🍁 (@basketballbuzz) March 21, 2022

Unfortunately, Kerr Kriisa’s return was only a negative for the Wildcats. Kriisa went just 1-for-10 from 3 in the game, although he’s still nursing a tough ankle injury.

Moving forward, the Wildcats will need more from their all-world point guard.

But Arizona’s game is predicated on the interior. The Wildcats are the second-tallest team nationally, and they use the length to their advantage, finishing fifth in 2-point shooting (57.6%) and second in 2-point defense (41.7%).

The only team that’s better in those two stats is Gonzaga. This makes sense, given that’s where Lloyd learned to run his program.

You worry about how Arizona is going to rebound following an overtime game. Especially because Houston and TCU are such similar things.

But outside of Gonzaga, there isn’t a longer, more athletic, and more efficient team in the nation. It’ll be hard to take this team down.

Houston vs Arizona Prediction and Pick

I’m leaning heavily towards Houston in this spot. But I have a feeling they could be a trendy underdog, and that scares me.

Arizona looked weak, and this is a good matchup for Houston. But TCU is an excellent basketball team that trended up in the Big 12 all season. Arizona could be slightly undervalued in this spot.

Instead, I’m going to back the under, which has seen some sharp movement despite the majority of the tickets being on the over.

This number is just a tad too high, especially for a Houston team that is 17-14 to the under this season with most totals closing under 140.

Arizona plays at a super-fast pace, but Houston is excellent at getting back and defending in transition. Plus, you know coach Sampson wants this game to be played at his team’s pace. He’s going to try and make Arizona play in the half-court.

That’s what TCU did, as the Horned Frogs only allowed Arizona 12 transition opportunities.

Expect the Cougars to do the same, and for this game to stay under the overinflated number.

March Madness Bracket