Illinois vs Michigan State: Betting Odds, Picks, and Predictions (2/19/22)
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Illinois vs Michigan State Betting Odds
With Illinois’ loss to Rutgers, the Illini have finally fallen out of first place in the Big Ten. Purdue now stands alone at the top.
Meanwhile, Sparty has lost three of its last four and now is a half-game behind Rutgers in the standings.
However, Michigan State is still a talented squad, and Izzo always has his teams playing best in March.
The Spartans will have to fend off Illinois to get back in the Big Ten race. Can they do it on Saturday?
Illinois Fighting Illini Odds
Rutgers and Purdue owned the paint in wins against the Illini. That’s odd, considering Kofi Cockburn is maybe the best big man in the nation.
You can’t stop Cockburn, but teams have been able to contain him. Meanwhile, both teams shot over 50% from inside the arc in the wins.
That’s a little disconcerting. However, both losses were on the road, and there’s no conference where home court matters more than the Big Ten.
Illinois is on track to be a fairly high seed in the big dance. But Brad Underwood wants to win the Big Ten regular-season title he felt was robbed from him last season.
This last stretch of games for Illinois isn’t too tough, but it’s not going to be easy either. But the Illini match up well with Michigan State, as the Illini beat Sparty in Champaign back on Jan. 25.
Michigan State Spartans Odds
Michigan State has been struggling even more than Illinois. The most recent blemish on the Spartans’ resume is a road loss to Penn State.
After starting the Big Ten season 5-0, the Spartans have won just four of the last 10 games. However, that beginning stretch was the softest schedule that Michigan State was going to see, so this regression is not unsurprising.
The ball movement and shooting continue to impress. AJ Hoggard and Tyson Walker have some of the highest assist rates in the country, and the whole team is top-10 in assist rate. While the Spartans don’t shoot a lot of 3s, they always make them – their 38.3% 3-point mark is ninth in the country.
Unfortunately, the Spartans don’t take care of the ball and don’t pressure the ball well. Among the 14 Big Ten teams, Michigan State is 14th in offensive turnover rate and 12th in defensive turnover rate.
Illinois vs Michigan State Prediction and Pick
My pick: Illinois ML (-115 at FanDuel)
This is a tough game to pick. Both teams are in a buy-low spot, and both are looking for bounce-back opportunities.
However, I think this comes down to the matchup.
Who is going to stop Cockburn? He didn’t even play in the first meeting, and the Illini pulled off a one-point win anyway.
Marcus Bingham is a huge, solid rim protector. But no other player on the roster is bigger than 6-foot-9. Plus, the Illini managed to hold Bingham to just 13 points and six rebounds without Cockburn there to stop him.
Plus, the Illini backcourt is the best defensive backcourt in the conference, if not the nation. Frazier and Plummer can lock down Hoggard and Walker with ease.
It’ll all come down to Jacob Grandison’s ability to outplay Max Christie, or at least contain Christie.
I like Grandison’s chances. He’s bigger and has a higher ORtg.
Give me the Illini to pull off a huge road win on their way back to the top of the conference standings.
