Illinois vs Purdue: Betting Odds, Picks, and Predictions (2/8/22)

Illinois vs Purdue Betting Odds

First place in the Big Ten is up for grabs every night.

So far, Illinois has survived every challenger, remaining atop the conference standings at 10-2. But now the Illini have to travel to West Lafayette and try to take down the No. 4 ranked Boilermakers.

Purdue has won five straight since losing to Indiana in Bloomington. The offense continues to wreak havoc on the conference, but the defense has been questionable at best.

The Boilermakers are still laying six points in this matchup. But Illinois won’t give up the crown so easily.

Illinois Fighting Illini Odds

Illinois is a great defensive team that’s electric to watch on offense.

In conference-only play, the Illini are first in the Big Ten in defensive efficiency and defensive effective field goal percentage. They’re starting to lock people up, and an interior defense led by Kofi Cockburn has become the conference’s best 2-point defense (43.4%).

But the guards are locking people up as well. Trent Frazier should be an all-conference defender this season, as he ranks in the 92nd percentile of players in half-court points per possession allowed (.623).

Brad Underwood’s spread offense is beautiful to watch.

Cockburn is a beast in the paint. He looks like Bowser, spinning and bullying his way to the rim possession-after-possession. He’s also been surprisingly good at the charity stripe while having the fifth-highest fouls drawn per 40 minutes in college hoops. He’s managed to avoid the hack-a-Kofi that could be detrimental to the Illini offense.

Meanwhile, Andre Curbelo is a wizard running the offense. Put him in ball-screens with Cockburn and he’ll make plays you didn’t think were possible.

Meanwhile, Trent Frazier and Alfanso Plummer are two lefty guards that are lights out shooting and driving. Both have ORtg’s over 120 and both are shooting over 35% from deep.

Jacob Grandison also has a 123.4 ORtg playing as the primary wing creator.

This is a complete Illinois team and one that’s going to be tough to stop down the stretch.

Purdue Boilermakers Odds

Purdue will beat you every which way offensively. There’s no way to stop the Boilermaker offense, which is fourth overall in points per game (84.5) and paces the nation in offensive efficiency.

But the defense is weak and specifically vulnerable to good guard play. Dribble penetration, ball-screens, and dominant ball-heavy drivers will take advantage of Purdue.

Plus, the Boilermakers often let teams hang around too much.

Purdue should’ve beaten Michigan by 20+ points. Juwan Howard had no answer for Jaden Ivey and the Purdue offense. But Purdue let its foot off the gas time and time again, as Hunter Dickinson, Devante Jones, and Caleb Houstan combined for 50 points in a six-point loss.

As complete and incredible this team is, there’s a glaring weakness that prevents them from being the best.

This team reminds me of the Ohio State and Iowa teams from last year, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see them drop a first or second-round game.

Illinois vs Purdue Prediction and Pick

My pick: Illinois +6 (-114 at BetMGM)

Curbelo, Frazier, and Plummer are going to terrorize the weakest point of the Purdue defense.

Trevion Williams and Zach Edey will be a problem in the paint, but I’m hoping that Cockburn will neutralize those two. It should be an interior Rock Fight for both sides.

While Ivey is incredible and Sasha Stefanovic is the best spot-up shooter in college hoops, the Illini perimeter players will be in lockstep with them offensively while being much stronger defensively.

I see an advantage with Illinois, and I’ll happily take the points in this massive Big Ten battle.

Plus, are we sure Illinois is ready to give up the crown? I’m hoping Underwood’s squad brings their best game in an attempt to clinch the Big Ten regular-season title that slipped away last season.