Illinois vs. Purdue Odds, Picks, and Predictions (3/5/23)

On the final day of the College Basketball regular season, there are still plenty of thrilling games to get treated to and throw some wagers on.  One of the games being a Big Ten fight between Illinois and Purdue.  While Purdue has already wrapped up the Big Ten conference and the 1 seed in the Big Ten Tourney, Illinois still is fighting for a chance at a bye and double bye.  They are also looking to better their standings in the NCAA Tourney and where they may be placed.  A huge win on the road against No. 5 Purdue would certainly help with that.  After a tough loss against a weak Ohio State team, they were able to bounce back with a big win against Michigan in double overtime.

Purdue also suffered a tough loss last week at home against rival Indiana.  They were able to bounce back however, winning a close game on the road against Wisconsin that certainly gave them some needed confidence.  Purdue would certainly like some additional confidence going into the postseason with a big win on Senior Night.  Illinois would love to steal one on the road and certainly have the talent to do so.  Let’s jump into this game’s picks and predictions:

Illinois vs. Purdue Betting Odds

There are no betting lines out just yet with the game still a couple days away but I’d speculate that Purdue will enter this game as the favorite.  They are playing at home and also are projected to be a one-seed in the NCAA Tournament.  They have had some scares but they have been consistent for the most part.  Illinois has struggled with consistency but they are still a very talented team.  The Fighting Illini have a 20-10 record and an 11-8 Big Ten record.  They are tied with many teams for a spot that could range from second to ninth in the Big Ten standing which is huge for bye potential.  Purdue with a 25-5 record and 15-5 Big Ten record don’t have as many worries heading into this game.  ESPN Analytics is giving Purdue an 83.1% chance to win at home.  That is a pretty high chance but looking at statistics it makes sense.  Looking at Kenpom’s analytical rankings, the Boilermakers are currently ranked 6th with the Fighting Illini currently ranked at 34th.  I would expect this line to be placed around 6 or 7 points.  Even with Purdue high percentage favorites, they have had plenty of close games.

The over/under line is not out yet but it is easy to speculate based on each team’s scoring averages.  Illinois is averaging 74.7 PPG with Purdue averaging 73.1 PPG.  Illinois having the slight advantage is scoring, but let’s take a look at the defensive side.  Purdue is averaging 62.2 points allowed with Illinois allowing 66.3 PPG.  Purdue getting the edge defensively there.  I would expect this line to be placed right around 135.

Illinois vs. Purdue Picks & Predictions

My Pick: Purdue ML

I think Purdue will bounce back after their last home game and get a win to finish the regular season strong.  Illinois just had a huge win for their senior night and think they may have a slow start at Mackey.  They also may struggle with Edey but Dain Dainja is a good big man to put up against him.  He has plenty of size, but I think the height is gonna be the difference maker.  Purdue will also be counting on their freshman guards Fletcher Loyer and Braden Smith to have big games.  They had disappointing games against Indiana but stepped up big down late against Wisconsin to hold on for the win.  They average 11.9 and 9.8 PPG for the Boilers.  The Illini will count on another big game from Terrence Shannon Jr.  who has been their leading scorer with 17.2 PPG.  He put up 21 against Michigan and could cause trouble for Purdue.  I expect them to put up a good fight against Purdue but ultimately will not be able to stop Zach Edey similarly to how they struggled against Trayce Jackson-Davis.  I think Purdue wins by around 5 points.

I think this game could be a defensive game especially on Purdue’s end.  I think they will do what they need to do to keep Illinois off the scoreboard.  Expect the finish to be a line closer to 120 or 125.  So if the line is placed around 130 or higher, the under could be a good play.

Key Matchup

Zach Edey vs. Illinois

Edey is currently the frontrunner for Naismith Player of the Year and that shouldn’t be a surprise looking at his statistical dominance this season.  Aside from just being dominant every time he’s on the court and nearly impossible to stop at times, he is averaging 22.1 PPG and 13.1 RPG.  If he is able to get to the rim he’s a hard stop and expect him to finish his season at Mackey strong in this matchup.  Also expect him on the defensive edge to keep Illinois from getting second chance opportunities.