Illinois vs Rutgers: Betting Odds, Picks, and Predictions (2/16/22)

Illinois vs Rutgers Betting Odds

The Illini continue to take everyone’s best punch, and they punch right back. They’re holding on to a half-game lead in the conference heading into Wednesday night’s slate, and they’ll be favored again in this game.

However, the Scarlet Knights won’t roll over and die. Rutgers has just defeated three straight AP Top 25 opponents for the first time in the school’s history (Michigan State, Ohio State, Wisconsin).

So, will Illinois bowl over an inferior team? Or will the Scarlet Knights pull off another impressive victory?

Illinois Fighting Illini Odds

When it comes to Illinois, the world loves to talk about Kofi Cockburn. The Jamaican big man has earned it, but the story of Illinois’ season has gone untold.

In conference-only play, Illinois paces the Big Ten in both defensive efficiency and effective field goal percentage allowed. Season-long, Illinois is top-20 in both those stats.

Cockburn is a dominant interior presence who rates highly in points per possession allowed and rebounding metrics. Meanwhile, Alfonso Plummer, Jacob Grandison, and Trent Frazier are all high-level on-ball defenders on the wing.

Specifically, Frazier, as he grades out in the 95th percentile of all D-I players in half-court points per possession allowed.

And Brad Underwood has the team so well-coached on that end as well.

Overall, it’s been a very impressive season on that end for the Illini, and it’s the reason Illinois is atop the Big Ten.

On the other end, Cockburn is a force, too. He’s averaging 21.5 points per game while shooting over 60% from the field. He also draws over seven free-throw attempts and shoots over 65% on those attempts – so the hack-a-Kofi strategy doesn’t work.

Plummer and Frazier have been lights out shooting the ball. The duo is combining to shoot over 36% from 3 on over 14 attempts per game.

Rutgers Scarlet Knights Odds

The formula for Rutgers is simple: Play defense and let Ron Harper Jr. cook.

When Steve Pikiell’s team exceeds in those two areas, it’s hard to stop.

Over this three-game winning streak, the Knights have allowed 63, 64, and 65 points. Meanwhile, Harper has combined for 46 points.

While Harper is the driving force of Rutgers basketball, Paul Mulcahy was the real star last week. The Junior combined for 45 points and a whopping 23 assists in the past three games. That includes a couple of big-time clutch plays:

When @RutgersMBB needed a bucket to regain the lead @paulmulcahy_3 stepped up 🔥 pic.twitter.com/Dy19tLygrm

— FOX College Hoops (@CBBonFOX) February 12, 2022

But moving forward, consistency will come from playing solid defense and playing through Harper. Rutgers has been inconsistent this season because the team gets away from its identity.

However, Rutgers is making a huge push towards a tournament appearance. The Scarlet Knights are a surprising 9-5 in conference play this season, currently sitting in sixth place in the Big Ten.

Illinois vs Rutgers Prediction and Pick

My pick: Illinois -4 (-110 at PointsBet)

Rutgers has been rolling, but the team is due for a loss.

And with Illinois failing to cover in back-to-back games, you won’t see the Illini at such a short price in this situation again.

Therefore, given it’s such a good buy-low, sell-high spot, I’ll be backing Illinois to win considerably on Wednesday.

Moreover, I have no idea how the Rutgers frontcourt will cover Cockburn. The center rotation of Clifford Omoruyi and Dean Reiber will be able to slow him, but Rutgers runs 6-foot-6 at the four.

Illinois will not want to drop this game, either. Coach Underwood and Co. are very close to snatching the Big Ten regular-season title that was stolen from this team last season.

Illinois gets the win and cover in this one.