Indiana faces #2 Michigan this Saturday (10/14/23). In this article, find the latest betting odds for this Big Ten matchup and a full preview of the game. In addition, find our Indiana vs. Michigan which is Indiana +33.5.
Indiana Vs. Michigan Prediction – College Football Week 7
Now sitting at #2 in the AP Top 25, it’s been a near flawless start to the season for the Michigan Wolverines. J.J. McCarthy is in the Heisman mix, while the run game has been outstanding with Blake Corum and Donovan Edwards leading the way. The defense has followed suit as one of the best units in the country.
However, I believe there’s some opportunity to bet against Michigan with a massive spread of 33.5 points. Indiana is coming off its bye week, and head coach Tom Allen is coaching for his job at this point with talks of a buyout circulating. Over their bye, offensive coordinator Walt Bell was fired and replaced with Rod Carey.
Carey ran a very successful offense as the head coach at Northern Illinois – the Huskies ranked top 60 in the FBS in scoring for five straight seasons. I’m excited to see how Carey can boost the play of true freshman quarterback Tayven Jackson, the brother of Indiana’s former basketball star Trayce Jackson-Davis.
Indiana’s defense has had some growing pains with a first year defensive coordinator and a secondary that lost its top five cornerbacks from last season. However, the front seven added some juice in the transfer portal, including Andre Carter, who leads the team with 20 total pressures.
We’re getting a little extra value on this number, as well, after Michigan had two pick-sixes last week – that inflated their margin of victory. Most importantly, this is a clear lookahead spot for Michigan as they travel to East Lansing to play their hated rival Michigan State next week. After the fighting that broke out following last year’s game, every player will have that one circled.
We’re not betting on Indiana to win this game or really come particularly close here, but there’s enough upside with the team coming off its bye week. A final score along the lines of 38-10 or 45-14 gets us to the window here, and I like Indiana to cover this massive spread.
Indiana Vs. Michigan Prediction: Indiana +33.5
Indiana Vs. Michigan Best Odds
The latest odds have the Michigan Wolverines as 33.5-point home favorites, a spot they’re used to as they’ve been sizable favorites in every game this season. The over/under sits at 46.5 points currently, so the sportsbooks are projecting a final score of around 40-7.
Indiana Vs. Michigan Key Matchups
While this Big Ten matchup isn’t expected to come down to the wire, there are still some fun matchups worth watching. Let’s break them down.
Blake Corum Vs. Indiana’s Run Defense
Blake Corum was poised to contend for a Heisman last year before a torn ACL ended his season. He still finished with 1,461 rushing yards and 18 touchdowns in 12 games. This year, Corum has been brought along somewhat slowly, but he still has 494 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns in six games.
Slowing down Corum will be Indiana’s top priority on Saturday, and it’s somewhat encouraging that they rank 37th in PFF’s team tackling grades – they were 88th last year. However, they’re 129th in rushing success rate allowed, so Corum could have a big game against this defense on Saturday after crushing them with 124 yards and a touchdown last year.
Roman Wilson Vs. Indiana’s Cornerbacks
Sophomore wide receiver has become a star for Michigan, as he leads the team with 22 catches for 382 yards and eight touchdowns. His 3.78 yards per route run rank eighth in the Power Five, and he doesn’t have a single drop on 29 targets this season. He’s been dominant week after week in this passing game.
Indiana will counter with transfer cornerbacks Kobee Minor (Texas Tech) and Nicolas Toomer (Stanford), who have had some impressive showings this season. They held Marvin Harrison Jr. to two catches for 18 yards in Week 1. Toomer returned to the lineup before the bye week against Maryland, and he should be at full health here.
ROMAN WILSON OUTRAGEOUS TOUCHDOWN GRAB
— Barstool Gambling (@stoolgambling) September 30, 2023
Tayven Jackson Vs. Michigan’s Pass Defense
True freshman quarterback Tayven Jackson has looked awesome at times this season, including against a stout Louisville defense when he completed 70% of his passes and averaged 8.8 yards per attempt. However, there have been growing pains, and he was benched in the second half against Maryland in a blowout.
Jackson remains the starting quarterback coming out of the bye week, and he’ll face his toughest test of the season by far. Michigan ranks sixth in passing EPA per play allowed, and now that All Conference cornerback Will Johnson is back in the fold, this might be the best pass defense in the country.