Indiana vs Illinois: Betting Odds, Picks, and Predictions (3/11/22)

Indiana vs Illinois Betting Odds

In the biggest game of the season, Michigan led by 17 points with just under 13 minutes left in the second half.

Juwan Howard’s squad put together one of the most remarkable collapses ever seen.

Michigan's last made field goal came with 12:52 to go and the Wolverines up 17.

It's now been 11 minutes without a made basket as Michigan trails 71-64.

That's a 28-4 run by Indiana.

— Heat Check CBB (@HeatCheckCBB) March 10, 2022

But that means Indiana has the chance to knock off Big Ten regular-season champion Illinois – and perhaps further the Hoosiers’ at-large hopes in the meanwhile.

Illinois has been patiently waiting after earning the double-bye. The Illini are rested and ready to roll.

But does that mean the Hoosiers are doomed?

Indiana Hoosiers Odds

What went right in the second half for Indiana?

Trayce Jackson-Davis won the interior. He put up 28 points and eight rebounds while holding Hunter Dickinson and Moussa Diabate to a combined 19 points on 8-for-18 shooting.

Xavier Johnson also managed to out-dual Devante’ Jones, which surprised me considerably. Jones and Eli Brooks finished with a 6:6 assist-to-turnover ratio, while Johnson dropped 17 points and seven assists in his effort.

Unfortunately, Illinois is like Michigan but bigger, stronger, and better defensively. Kofi Cockburn might be too big for TJD, and the Trent Frazier/Alfonso Plummer combo can shut down any backcourt in the country.

Indiana will need another big performance from Johnson. Because the rest of the team was useless in the Michigan game.

I’d like to see Miller Kopp get hot, too. He’s a good shooter, but he hasn’t been getting good looks and hasn’t been converting on either.

Illinois Fighting Illini Odds

Let’s dig into Illinois’ roster makeup more.

As mentioned, Kofi Cockburn is a bigger, stronger Dickinson. You can debate the strengths and weaknesses of each, but Cockburn is also a 7-footer who has 25 extra pounds on Dickinson. He’s a better rebounder and a much-better post defender. And he held TJD to just six points and six rebounds on 3-for-9 shooting in the Indiana-Illinois game earlier this season.

Meanwhile, Trent Frazier and Alfonso Plummer will be much tougher on the Indiana guards than Michigan was. Illinois gets pick-and-rolled a lot on the defensive end, but the Illini were the most efficient team in the Big Ten at guarding those sets, per ShotQuality.

Offensively, Frazier and Plummer will shoot the lights out. Andre Curbelo is also a very savvy playmaker, but he’s prone to mistakes. Lots of really bad, stupid mistakes.

That could provide an opening for Indiana, which forces turnovers at the fourth-highest rate in the conference.

Although Indiana got rocked by Illinois at home earlier this season, the Hoosiers did shoot just 3-for-13 from 3. They also allowed Illinois to shoot 26 free throws. The Hoosiers will probably still get into foul trouble, but a few more 3s fall, and this could be a much-closer game.

Indiana vs Illinois Prediction and Pick

That was an impressive comeback against Michigan.

Brad Underwood is one of the best and most consistent coaches in the conference, and he will not let that same meltdown happen.

Before the Michigan melt, the Wolverines were able to draw tons of fouls – they had 17 free-throws in the first 25 minutes. Cockburn is going to live at the line, because I don’t think TJD can stay in front of him.

Meanwhile, are we sure TJD will have a bounce-back game against Cockburn? I think it’s just a bad matchup.

I’m laying the points with the Illini on its way to a matchup with likely Iowa.