Indiana Vs. Michigan State (11/19/22): Odds & Predictions

Sports bettors tend to fall in love or hate teams who have been successful or burned a hole in their pocket. An enemy of mine this year? The Michigan State Spartans. After blowing a cover on the last play of the game last week against Rutgers, they now have a second chance to redeem themselves this week against Indiana.

Indiana Vs. Michigan State Team Odds

I was surprised how big of a favorite Michigan State opened up with expected steam crashing the number down. Initially starting as a -13 favorite, the number has dropped all the way to the football number of -10. This caught my attention as projections make them -11.5.

As for the total, this has intrigued me as I have no idea what to expect in a combined scoring effort. Both units have been abysmal at a consistent level of offensive play, giving me pause in putting my money towards the total of 47.

Indiana Vs. Michigan State Team Prediction & Pick

The Pick: MSU -10

It’s never ideal going against steam but I can’t help but pull the trigger on a buy-low spot as the spread now sits at -10. Passing projections of -11.5 Michigan State is in a must win situation should they aspire to play in a bowl game. Sitting at 5-5, they fare far better to beat Indiana then win their season finale against Penn State.

In a rare instance for the Spartans, they have statistical advantages on both sides of the field against Indiana as they are one of the worst teams in football. Even with one of the worst secondaries in the nation, Michigan State’s defense will be more than equipped to stop Indiana’s offense.

With Indiana’s anemic offense that struggles to sustain drives down the field, they will be outmatched in Explosiveness, Success Rate, and Finishing Drives. Not an ideal situation for a team trying to generate the upset.

On the other end, Michigan State will have a strong advantage through the air when on offense. While MSU tends to run at a heavier rate, we may see a different game script as Indiana’s Def Rush Success is shockingly good. Should Thorne air the ball out, Michigan State will have no issues moving down the field resulting in points on the board.

Indiana Vs. Michigan State Team Key Matchups

How will Indiana stop the receiving duo of Jayden Reed and Keon Coleman? Does a new face under center spell doom for the Michigan State defense? 

MSU receiver’s vs Indiana secondary

Lucky for Michigan State, they are stacked with weapons to combat Indiana’s rush defense. The loss of star running back Kenneth Walker couldn’t have been more obvious as Michigan State has failed to establish a run game since his absence. No running back on the roster has over 600 yards this season with Jalen Berger leading the way with 550 rushing yards and six touchdowns.

Thorne and company will be poised for a big game as Indiana ranks 128th in Def Pass Success rate and 89th in Def Standard Downs. This is a major contrast to their Def Rush Success Ranks, a metric they rank 34th in.

If MSU can give Thorne a clean pocket and avoid his sporadic mistakes, he should have no issue connecting with his weapons for sustained success. Both Reed and Coleman have established themselves as Thornes go-to’s, combining for 1,148 yards and 11 touchdowns.

Dexter Williams II vs MSU’s linebackers

While it couldn’t get much worse for the Indiana offense as they are one of the worst units in football, it was time they made a change under center and that is exactly what we may see with Dexter Williams II taking snaps under center.

He provides a dual threat ability that starter Connor Bazelak did not possess, leading Indiana in both passing and rushing in their loss to Ohio State last weekend with a statline of 107 passing yards, two touchdowns, and 46 yards on the ground. While it’s never easy to gauge success against the second best team in the nation, it will be intriguing to see what Williams can do against a much softer defense.

Verdict

Going against the steam, I’m giving MSU one last chance to make it right with my bankroll by backing them at a buy low point of -10. With advantages on both sides of the ball we should see them secure their bowl berth behind Payton Thorne’s arm.