The much-anticipated rematch has finally arrived as Indiana hits the road to battle it out against the Purdue Boilermakers. Indiana rolled Purdue in the first half in their last matchup, fighting off a second half surge to secure the big upset on their home court. Now they have a chance to secure the sweep, improving their standing in the Big Ten as well. After a disappointing loss to the Spartans in their last game out, they now need to bounce back against the best team in the Big Ten.
Indiana Vs. Purdue Odds
Oddsmakers have tempered their expectations of Indiana getting the regular season sweep against the Boilermakers, opening the Hoosiers as a +7.5 underdog. Bettors have more faith in them, taking them down to +7 as of writing. Minus their last meeting against each other, both teams have trended in different directions with Purdue rounding back into elite form and Indiana reeling. It will be intriguing to see if Indiana can bottle their first half success they had in the last matchup, playing at an elite rate on both ends.
As for the total, points are expected to be scored at a moderate pace as oddsmakers opened the total at 138.5. Bettors were quick to hit the over, taking it up to as high as 139.5 in some shops. Both offenses played at a high level at various times with Indiana dominating the first half and Purdue putting together a late scoring surge to give them a scare. This combined for over 140 points, making it intriguing to see if they can both find that same level of scoring success.
Indiana Vs. Purdue Prediction & Pick
The Pick: Wait on Purdue spread
As much as I would love to see Indiana continue to expose Purdue, I cannot simply back them as their offense has been severely reeling. Purdue also seemed to figure things out at halftime, consistently exposing Indiana’s defense in the mid-range which allowed Edey to get space in the interior as well. Projections have this number about right at -7.5 so I will wait to see if money will continue to come in on Indiana, allowing me to get a better number near tipoff.
Zach Edey will be the main focus for the offense as usual, battling it out against the second best big man in the conference in Trayce Jackson-Davis. TJD held himself well early on but Edey’s size eventually overwhelmed him throughout the course of the game. Once Edey is able to get it going, that spells disaster for opposing defenses as they are forced to clamp down the interior. That opens up gaps in the defense, allowing Purdue to slash the openings for high quality looks at the rim.
Purdue will also have a massive advantage on the boards. Especially on the defensive end as Indian ranks near dead last in offensive rebounding. They need as many second chance opportunities as possible to make up for their lack of consistent scoring, losing out on precious chances to keep this tight. Other than Trayce Jackson-Davis and Race Thompson, no other Hoosier averages more than five rebounds per game.
Since being exposed by Maryland when the Terps started pressing the Boilermakers, Purdue has done a much better job at securing the ball and breaking opposing pressure. Indiana was able to take advantage of that early on, but we can expect them to not find the same level of success as they did before. Cutting down on turnovers for opposing fast break points and limiting stalled out possessions have given Purdue more offensive consistency.
Indiana Vs. Purdue Key Matchups
Can Purdue’s defense limit Indiana’s interior scoring?
Purdue interior defense vs Indiana low post scoring
Tracye Jackson-Davis gave an impressive effort in their initial matchup and has continued to play at a high rate while leading Indiana’s offense. Jalen Hood-Schifino has played a role in this as well, serving as a slashing guard to give TJD more room to work with when defenses zero in on Jalen.
This combination for the Hoosiers has continued to find looks in the interior at an efficient rate, ranking 25th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency.
The issue is Zach Edey plays at a massive size and has continued to develop as an interior defender. He closes in on gaps from the opposite end and can body TJD. With Indiana reeling at the perimeter and losing out on precious interior looks, their offense may not be able to keep up with Purdue’s pace.
With Indiana taking money early on, I will wait to see how low this can go before putting a position on Purdue.