Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars 12/29/19: Analysis, Daily Fantasy

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The Colts head to Florida to take on the Jaguars this Sunday. The Colts had a great game against the Panthers last week which featured their running game. They rushed for over 200 yards and the Jaguars have been weak to the run as well so the Colts could absolutely carry their rushing momentum into this game and end their season with a .500 record. The Jaguars have had a tough season. Minshew’s magic only brought them so far; he’s thrown for 18 touchdowns and 5 interceptions and gotten an 89.8 point passer rating on the season, which isn’t awful, but they’re still a 5-10 team. I think the Colts are going to take the win in this matchup as their offense matches up very well against the Jaguars defense, and we saw what their rushing offense can do against a weak rushing defense last week. Click here for more details and betting information on the Colts @ Jaguars matchup.

TV Schedule

Date: Sunday, December 29, 2019
Time: 1:25 PM PST
Location: TIAA Bank Field, Jacksonville, FL
Coverage: CBS

Injury Report

Colts: Denico Autry (D), Kenny Moore II (Q), Al-Quadin Muhammah (Q), Quenton Nelson (Q), Khari Willis (D), Quincy Wilson (O), Jordan Wilkins (O)
Jaguars: Michael Walker (O), Dede Westbrook (Q), Gardner Minshew II )(QA), A.J. Bouye (Q), Leonard Fournette (Q), Nick O’Leary (Q), Dakota Allen (Q)

Indianapolis Colts Analysis

Indianpolis ColtsThe Colts had a huge game on the ground last week against the Panthers. They rushed for a total of 218 yards. Marlon Mack rushed for 95 yards and a touchdown off of 16 carries (5.9 YPC) and Jordan Wilkins rushed for 84 yards and a touchdown off of 9 carries (9.3 YPC). These are some pretty great numbers, and it’s looking like they might be able to do it again this year. The Jaguars allow the 2nd highest yards per carry to opposing running backs and an average 139.8 yards rushing yards per game, the 5th most in the league. The Colts have a lot of momentum and have some great backs running the ball, so they could do some serious damage on the ground again this week. The Jaguars are a bottom-half pass defense so Brissett could also do some damage through the air. I think the Colts are going to rely mostly on the run this game because the matchup would be too good to pass up especially after their rushing-led win against the Panthers last week.

The Colts had a great defensive game last week as well. They held the Panthers to only 6 points. They were also able to intercept Will Grier three times. If this defense shows up against the Jaguars, I think this game is going to have a very similar score to their game against the Panthers. However, the Colts passing defense hasn’t been this great all year. They allow an average 246.4 yards per game through the air, the 11th most in the league. The Jaguars have some good recievers like Conley and Chark that could do some serious damage against an unprepared secondary so the Colts will have to be careful. The Colts have been a top-ten rushing defense, so I think if their pass defense can step up like they did last week this game should be theirs.

Indianapolis Colts Depth Chart

QB: Jacoby Brissett
RB1: Marlon Mack
RB2: Nyheim Hines
WR1: T.Y. Hilton
WR2: Zach Pascal
WR3: Chester Rogers
TE: Jack Doyle

Jacksonville Jaguars Analysis

Jacksonville JaguarsThe Jaguars are coming off a loss to the Falcons. Minshew completed only 13 of his 31 passing attempts for 181 yards and a touchdown, good for a passer rating of 72.1 points. Minshew has had an okay year; he’s thrown 18 touchdowns and five interceptions and has a passer rating of 89.8. Their offense just hasn’t been super productive, which has lost them a lot of games. Fournette has been on and off this season and had a good game last week with 71 yards off of 15 carries. The Colts haven’t been the greatest passing defense this season but they looked pretty great last week against the Panthers, so Fournette may see a higher volume of carries depending on how the Colts secondary is playing that weekend. The Jaguars have been a pretty middling offense all together this season — exactly middling, ranking 16th in both passing yards per game (231.6) and rushing yards per game (109.4) — and if the Colts defense from last week against the Panthers shows up on Sunday I don’t think “middling” is going to be good enough to get the Jaguars the win.

Defense is going to be the real test for the Jaguars against the Colts. The Jaguars allow an average 5.1 yards per carry, the 2nd most in the league, and 139.8 rushing yards per game, the 5th most in the league. The Colts put up over 200 rushing yards against a Carolina rushing defense that has very similar numbers to the Jaguars (an average 5.3 yards per carry and 145.4 yards per game) so it isn’t looking great for the Jaguars. The best thing they can do for their defense is to keep them off the field, as their passing defense is bottom-half as well. I think the Jaguars are going to lose this game based on their defense this weekend, as the Colts rushing onslaught will be too much for them to handle on Sunday.

Jacksonville Jaguars Depth Chart

QB: Gardner Minshew
RB1: Leonard Fournette
RB2: Ryquel Armstead
WR1: Chris Conley
WR2: D.J. Chark
WR3: Dede Westbrook
TE: Geoff Swaim

Daily Fantasy

If you have Marlon Mack or Nyheim Hines, I would definitely recommend a start. Jordan Wilkins is out for their game on Sunday so Hines could be getting the carries that Wilkins would be getting. The Colts had a huge day on the ground last week against the Panthers with over 200 rushing yards, and the Jaguars defense puts up numbers against the run that are very similar to Panthers’ numbers. I think this is going to be a big rushing day once again for the Colts considering this great matchup. Other than that, I don’t think there are any must-have players in this game. I don’t think there are any receivers that are in for huge games this week as I think the Colts will focus on the run and the Jaguars might do the same considering that would be the best way to keep the Colts offense off of the field.

I'm a student at UC Santa Barbara studying English. I've been watching football for almost my entire life. A couple of years ago, I started to really get into statistics and became a lot more interested in the NFL and have been really excited about it ever since.

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